QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

TOWNSVILLE Labor 9.4%
Region: Regional City Federal division: Herbert Outgoing Member: Mike Reynolds (Labor)
	MURRAY HURST Liberal National (bottom) MICHAEL PUNSHON Family First DELENA OUI-FOSTER Independent MANDY JOHNSTONE Labor (top) JENNY STIRLING Greens

Townsville looms as a more competitive contest than the margin suggests, due to the retirement of Mike Reynolds after 11 years as member. The electorate covers the northern part of the city, the remainder of which is divided betwen Mundingburra and Thuringowa (also included are Magnetic Island and Palm Island to the north). This includes an area of conservative strength in and around the Townsville business district, although this has lately been outweighed by Labor's strength in the surrounding suburbs. The redistribution has added 1800 voters in suburban Hermit Park from Mundingburra, increasing the Labor margin by 0.3 per cent.

Townsville has been held by Labor since the 1989 election, which marked a return to the dominance the party had enjoyed here until 1960. In that year the electorate was divided into Townsville North, held by Labor's Percy Tucker (later to lead his party to the slaughter at the 1974 election), and Townsville South, held by independent veteran Tom Aikens. The city was rearranged into Townsville and Townsville West in 1972, the former being won for the Liberals by Norman Scott-Young and the latter going to Tucker. Townsville changed hands at three successive elections in the 1980s: when Scott-Young was defeated by Labor's Ken McElligott in 1983; when McElligott moved to the new electorate of Thuringowa in 1986 and Tony Burreket won Townsville for the Nationals; and when Labor candidate Ken Davies won in 1989 before jumping ship to Mundingburra in 1992. It was subsequently held for Labor by Geoffrey Smith until 1998 and thereafter by Mike Reynolds. Labor performed relatively poorly here in the 2001 and 2004 landslides, which respectively recorded a 1.8 per cent swing to Labor and a 6.0 per cent swing against, before enjoying a susbtantial 3.8 per cent swing in 2006.

Following Reynolds' retirement announcement the week before the election was called, Labor's administrative committee promptly moved to preselect Mandy Johnstone, president of Family Emergency Accommodation Townsville. Johnstone was chosen ahead of former Townsville mayor Tony Mooney, whose unsuccessful council ticket at the 2008 elections included Johnstone. Mooney was also Labor's unsuccessful candidate at the 1996 Mundingburra by-election that tipped the Goss government from office. According to Tony Raggatt of the Townsville Bulletin, Johnstone's endorsement marked a win for Mundingburra MP Lindy Nelson-Carr (“apparently a cousin” of Johnstone, according to Raggatt), a rival of Reynolds within the Socialist Left faction.

The Liberal National Party candidate is Murray Hurst, former head coach of the NRL club the North Queensland Cowboys and assistant coach of the Queensland state-of-origin team. Hurst also served on Thuringowa City Council from 2004 to 2008. Also in the field is Delena Oui-Foster, former mayor of the Palm Island Aboriginal Shire Council, whose nomination as an independent might deprive Labor of some of the 500-odd votes it normally wins on Palm Island.

As part of yesterday's Labor campaign launch on the Sunday before the election, Anna Bligh promised to spend $25 million expanding Townsville's neonatal clinic. Labor has also matched the LNP's promise to contribute $19 million to the development of Flinders Mall, earlier described by the Townsville Bulletin as “the number one infrastructure project needed in Townsville” in the opinion of “civic and business leaders”.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN