QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

TOOWOOMBA NORTH Labor 7.6%
Region: Regional City Federal division: Groom
	BRETT ROBINSON Greens ARCHIE FRANZ Family First NEIL RIETHMULLER Independent TREVOR WATTS Liberal National (bottom) KERRY SHINE Labor (top) PERRY J.B. JEWELL Independent

Located on the crest of the Great Dividing Range 130 kilometres west of Brisbane, the city of Toowoomba formed as a single electorate until 1960. It was then divided into Toowoomba East and Toowoomba West, before being reconfigured into Toowoomba North and Toowoomba South in 1972. Toowoomba North was won by Labor on its debut and then lost to the Liberals in the 1974 landslide, in turn falling to the Nationals as part of the drubbing the Liberals copped in 1983. The seat fell to Labor when Wayne Goss came to power in 1989, but Graham Healy recovered it for the Nationals in 1992 and consolidated his hold with a 9.1 per cent swing in 1995. It took the fall force of an 11.9 per cent swing to dislodge Healy in 2001, when Labor's Kerry Shine prevailed by 1.9 per cent. Shine has since achieved an outstanding electoral record, increasing both his primary (8.1 per cent and 1.0 per cent) and two-party preferred (5.4 per cent and 3.1 per cent) votes in 2004 and 2006. The redistribution has drawn the electorate into the centre of Toowoomba, adding 5500 voters previously in Toowoomba South and cutting the Labor margin from 10.4 per cent to 7.6 per cent. However, the impact of local candidate factors is demonstrated by comparing results from booths that were split between the two electorates in 2006, which collectively produced Labor margins of 9.4 per cent in Toowoomba North and 2.9 per cent in Toowoomba South.

Kerry Shine was a partner in Toowoomba law firm Shine Roche McGowan before entering parliament. A member of the Labor Forum faction, he was appointed to a parliamentary secretary position in July 2005 and to cabinet as Natural Resources and Water Minister after the 2006 election. He was further promoted less than two months later to Attorney-General and Justice Minister following the resignation of Linda Lavarch. The Liberal National Party candidate is Trevor Watts, local nightclub licensee and chair of the Toowoomba Liquor Industry Action Group. There was conjecture that Stuart Copeland, the 40-year-old former Shadow Attorney-General, would contest the seat following the abolition of his Darling Downs electorate of Cunningham and the refusal of 64-year-old Mike Horan to stand aside in Toowoomba South. However, he instead chose at first to retire, before announcing at the start of the campaign he would challenge Ray Hopper as an independent in Condamine.

The LNP has sought to make hay from Attorney-General Kerry Shine's portfolio area by promising to boost councils' powers to veto brothel applications, which is apparently an issue of particular local concern. Local newspaper The Chronicle helpfully outlined the parties' promises relevant to the electorate late in the camapign. Labor: $1 million for a birth centre at Toowoomba Hospital; new $1.7 million kindergarten at Fairview Heights State School; $2 million upgrade for Toowoomba Hospital’s emergency department; $3.78 million to upgrade the Toowoomba Young Women's Christian Association; $3.23 million to build 12 two-bedroom social housing units at Newtown; $2.5 million to secure land for a new high school at Highfields. LNP: “Protection of farming areas like Felton and Haystack Plain from mining”; a maternity centre (one of 12 across regional Queensland at a cost of $27 million); $5 million to extend the Wilsonton campus of Toowoomba State High School to years 11 and 12; $2 million to secure land for a new high school at Highfields.

PREDICTION: Labor retain