QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

SOUTHPORT
Labor 7.6%
Region: Gold Coast
Federal divisions: Fadden/Moncrieff
GRAEME HILL
Independent

MARK TULL
Independent

STEPHEN DALTON
Greens

PETER LAWLOR
Labor (top)

BRIAN MORRIS
DS4SEQ

TANIA WRIGHT
Liberal National (bottom)


The suburb and business district of Southport covers part of the Gold Coast's most concentrated area of development immediately north of Surfers Paradise, from which the electorate extends eastwards beyond the Pacific Highway to Molendinar and Arundel. Southport was won by the Liberals on its creation in 1977 and has since changed hands twice, to the Nationals in 1980 and Labor in 2001. Labor's 13.9 per cent swing in 2001 followed a series of narrow defeats, giving them an instant safe seat with a margin of 10.8 per cent. Defeated Nationals member Mick Veivers had humiliated his leader Rob Borbidge during the campaign by defying his ban on preference deals with One Nation. The 2004 election produced little change after the Nationals contentiously won the right to contest the seat at the expense of the Liberals. A controversial cruise ship terminal proposal loomed as a dangerous issue for Labor at the 2006 election, but Peter Beattie knocked the project on the head in the first week of the campaign and the swing against Labor was only 0.9 per cent. The redistribution has reduced that a further 0.5 per cent by transferring 1300 voters at coastal Labrador to Broadwater in the north, and adding 1700 voters at interior Ashmore from Surfers Paradise.

Former solicitor and Gold Coast councillor Peter Lawlor's win for Labor in 2001 followed unsuccessful attempts in 1992, 1995 and 1998. He was named by the Courier-Mail as a front-runner for one of the Left's positions in the ministry immediately after the 2004 election, but it instead went to Albert MP Margaret Keech and he has continued to be overlooked since. Liberal National Party candidate Tania Wright is a marketing management consultant and former member of the Nationals.

Lawrence Springborg took a major gamble in the third week of the campaign when he refused to match Labor's $60 million commitment to an upgrade of Carrara Stadium, located in Gaven. Labor had trouble of its own when Anna Bligh announced the project earlier in the week: whereas the consortium was shooting for entry at the 2011 season, Labor initially circulated a statement putting it at 2012, and a funding timetable showed the final instalment scheduled for 2012-13. Springborg's prompt declaration that the measure was too expensive provoked outrage from the Gold Coast Bulletin, which had earlier taken a stick to the LNP over a tourism package that promised equal funding to the Gold Coast and Mount Isa. Labor linked Springborg's position to litigious LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, who owns a potential competitor in the Gold Coast United soccer team. Springborg made a late withdrawal from a Chamber of Commerce luncheon the following day, at which he seemed likely to face a frosty reception. The official reason was that Springborg did not wish to share equal billing with Deputy Premier Paul Lucas in the absence of Anna Bligh, but Sue Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin reported that organisers “always warned that Ms Bligh had not accepted the invitation and was unlikely to attend”.

Nonetheless, Springborg seems to be gaining at least some traction with his message that the LNP is sensibly prioritising transport and particularly health over sport. According to Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, “insiders in the Opposition Leader's camp insist he was acting on research showing health was the top priority for the Gold Coast”. For what it's worth, a self-selecting poll on the Gold Coast NBN television news showed 86 per cent opposition to Labor's promise. At the start of the last week of the campaign, the LNP launched a television advertisement and accompanying website asking: “Would you rather your sick child go to a hospital, or a game of football? While Anna Bligh is playing games, Lawrence Springborg is saving the Royal Children's Hospital.” Nonetheless, LNP members in the region remained nervous about the policy. Ray Stevens, LNP member for Robina and candidate for its successor seat of Mermaid Beach, defied his leader to argue the party should be “opening up the Treasury books” to find finding for the upgrade. According to Mike Bruce of the Gold Coast Bulletin, “one LNP insider said that billionaire businessman Clive Palmer was front and centre” of the decision not to fund the stadium.

The showpiece of the $700 million capital works program promised at the LNP launch on the Sunday before the election was a $260 million contribution to a Gold Coast rapid transit project. This will provide a light rail link from Helensvale through the Griffith University campus to Southport, and thence to Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach, Miami, Burleigh Heads and Coolangatta. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported that “while the Gold Coast City Council has committed $120 million to the proposal, it depends on $380 million from the federal Government – money that has not been confirmed”. Springborg has promised an LNP government will retain the Southport Hospital site after the Gold Coast University Hospital opens in 2012, but with no funding allocated for its upgrade or maintenance concedes it might be mothballed until 2020. Earlier in the campaign, the Courier-Mail reported that Springborg “seemed unaware of the details” when alerted to a press release from Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson stating $1.8 million would be spent on local traffic congestion on the M1.

In the second week of the campaign, Sue Lappeman reported that “polling seen by The Bulletin” showed the seat was “in doubt”. Two days out from election day, a report on internal polling by Peter van Onselen in The Australian said Labor was “tracking badly” in the seat, indicating a swing of between 8 and 10 per cent.

PREDICTION: Labor retain