QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

SOUTHERN DOWNS Nationals 20.4%
Region: Rural Southern Federal division: Maranoa
	BOB EAST Greens GEOFFREY KEATING Labor (bottom) LAWRENCE SPRINGBORG Liberal National (top)

Southern Downs extends from Warwick, 100 kilometres south-west to Brisbane, westwards along the Cunningham and Barwon highways through Inglewood, Goondiwindi and beyond. The redistribution has added an area further north around Milmerran, including 2600 voters previously in abolished Cunningham. The electorate was created in 2001 in an area previously accommodated by Carnarvon until 1992 and Warwick thereafter. Carnarvon, Warwick and Southern Downs were progressively held for the Nationals by Lawrence Springborg, who parliament in 1989 at the age of 21. The area has been secure National/Country Party territory since the 1957 Labor split, such that even a 20.9 per cent dive in the primary vote (to 45.9 per cent) did not put Springborg in real danger from One Nation in 1998.

Springborg served as Natural Resources Minister for four months in the twilight of the Borbidge government, and became Shadow Attorney-General in opposition. In February 1999 he rose to the deputy leadership in place of Mike Horan, who stood aside after an unsuccessful challenge to Borbidge's leadership. Springborg and Horan contested the leadership when Borbidge quit politics after the 2001 election disaster, with Horan reportedly prevailing by one vote. When polling figures failed to show any improvement over the following two years, Horan sought to head off mounting leadership speculation by calling a party room spill, in which Springborg won with “at least” eight votes out of 12. Springborg did well by modern standards to remain at the helm without interruption for two elections, but was only able to make a minor dent in Labor's massive majority.

After the second defeat in September 2006, Springborg relinquished the leadership and was widely tipped to enter federal politics. Party figures reportedly put pressure on him to challenge Ron Boswell's Senate preselection for the 2007 election, but he declared that “going up against a sitting member is not something I want to do”. So it was that he remained on the back bench as the party's polling went backwards under the leadership of Jeff Seeney, and a view developed after the federal election that he should be re-enlisted to put the party on a better footing for merger negotiations. After initially expressing reluctance, Springborg challenged Seeney in the party room on January 21, 2008, and reportedly won the party room vote 10 to six. Springborg became a crucial figure in the merger negotiations which bore fruit in August 2008.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain