QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

NOOSA Liberal 7.4%
Region: Sunshine Coast Federal divisions: Wide Bay/Fairfax
	BRIAN STOCKWELL Labor (bottom) GLEN ELMES Liberal National (top) CATE MOLLOY Independent JOHN CHAPMAN Family First STEVE HAINES Greens

Noosa extends along the coast from Noosa Heads and its surrounds to Peregian Beach 20 kilometres to the south, and through less developed areas for 30 kilometres to north. Rapid growth in the area has led to it being trimmed by the redistribution, costing it the Labor-leaning southern coastal end at Coolum Beach (transferring 4500 voters to Maroochydore). There has also been a less consequential transfer of 800 voters around Yandina further inland to Nicklin, and a territory swap with Gympie which has straightened the western boundary. The electorate was created in 1992, mostly from the urbanised part of abolished Cooroora, which the National/Country Party had held from the party's creation in 1922 until Labor's win in 1989. Liberal candidate Bruce Davidson won the new seat by 2.4 per cent at the 1992 election, at which the Nationals ran a distant third (they have not contested the seat since).

Noosa emerged as the jewel in Labor's short-lived Sunshine Coast crown early in the decade, when their candidate Cate Molloy narrowly won the seat from Davidson with an 11.3 per cent swing in 2001, then piled an extra 7.8 per cent on to her margin in 2004. Molloy emerged as a troublesome figure for the government, at one point saying she held Liberal MPs “accountable” for the Bali bombing. She was disendorsed ahead of the 2006 election due to her public opposition to the Traveston dam, which extended to leading protest marches and threatening to introduce a private member's bill. Her decision to run as an independent probably ended any hope Labor had of retaining the seat, as she split the left vote by polling 23.4 per cent. The Liberals were thus able to turn a 2.9 per cent increase in the primary vote into a 15.0 per cent swing after preferences.

The seat has since been held for the Liberals by Glen Elmes, general manager of local radio stations Heat FM and 4GY, who had also been the party's candidate in 2004. Cate Molloy announced in mid-February that she was considering running again as an independent.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain