QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

NICKLIN Independent 25.1% versus Nationals*
Region: Sunshine Coast Hinterland Federal divisions: Fairfax/Wide Bay * 2006 election result unadjusted for redistribution
	PETER WILLIAM WELLINGTON Independent (top) GARRY CLARIDGE Greens STEVEN MORRISON Liberal National (bottom) PETER BAULCH Labor

Nicklin covers the hinterland of the Sunshine Coast from Nambour west of Maroochydore to Cooroy west of Noosa Heads. The redistribution has pushed the seat northwards, transferring 6800 voters around Eudlo and Palmwoods to Glass House and adding 3500 voters around Cooroy from Gympie and a further 800 around Eumundi nearer the coast from Noosa. Nicklin was won for the Nationals on its creation in 1986 by Brian Austin, who retired a casualty of the Fitzgerald inquiry in 1989. His successor Neil Turner was one of many victims of the backlash against the major parties in 1998, although his seat fell to independent Maroochy Shire councillor Peter Wellington rather than One Nation.

Wellington's surprise win left him one of two independents holding the balance of power between Labor and the Coalition-plus-One Nation. He anointed Beattie as premier, and soon had the weight removed from his shoulders when Labor secured a one-seat majority after the Mulgrave by-election in December 1998. Wellington's first term satisfied local voters enough to secure him an easy victory with 46.3 per cent in 2001 (a Federal Parliamentary Library study says this result was possibly unique in the last 50 years of state or federal elections in that no major party made the two-candidate preferred cut), which he increased to 59.5 per cent in 2004. In between came an horrific farm accident, his persistence in the face of which would make him a very hard man to vote against. The Liberal National Party has nominated the Nationals candidate from 2006, Steven Morrison, who operates a Nambour farm machinery dealership.

In the third week of the campaign, Peter Wellington said the Traveston dam issue would cost the government his support in any post-election horse trading.

PREDICTION: Independent retain