QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

MUDGEERABA Labor 2.7%
Region: Gold Coast Hinterland Federal divisions: McPherson/Moncrieff/Forde/Fadden
	TOM HARDIN DS4SEQ ROS BATES Liberal National (bottom) DIANNE REILLY Labor (top) JAMES TAYLER Family First JULIAN WOOLFORD Greens

Mudgeeraba is located immediately inland of the coastal electorates of the Gold Coast, extending from southern Nerang to the New South Wales border. It encompasses developed Gold Coast areas in the north-east along with hinterland and national park areas to the west and south. Reflecting the rapid development of the area, the redistribution has detached 10,000 voters around Nerang to Gaven in the north while adding only 5700 around Merrimac and Robina Town from abolished Robina further south, shaving 0.2 per cent from the Labor margin. The electorate was created in 2001 when it replaced abolished Nerang, which the Liberals gained from the Nationals in 1989. The Liberals had a notional margin of 11.6 per cent going into the 2001 election, but this was swept away by a massive 18.4 per cent two-party swing consistent with the Coalition wipeout across the Gold Coast.

Labor's successful candidate was Dianne Reilly, the principal of a public relations consultancy firm. All of Labor's Gold Coast newcomers were returned in 2004, although Mudgeeraba became highly marginal again after a 5.0 per cent correction. There were multiple reports during the 2006 campaign that Labor had all but abandoned hope of retaining the seat, but Liberal Party disarray helped Reilly to a third unlikely win on the back of a 1.0 per cent two-party swing. A member of the Labor Unity (Centre) faction, Reilly has failed to win serious promotion in her time in parliament.

The Liberal National Party has endorsed the Liberal candidate from the 2006 election, Ros Bates, a former nursing administrator and current partner in factional warlord Michael Caltabiano's consultancy firm Entree Vous. Bates has maintained a high local media profile since the 2006 election as a residents group activist, particularly through the Gold Coast Sun newspaper. It was reported in September 2008 that Gold Coast councillor and National Party identity Ted Shepherd would get the LNP nod for the current election due to arrangements reached during party merger negotiations, to the dismay of Bates' supporters. However, it was later reported that Shepherd was unable to nominate because his LNP membership application had mysteriously been put “on hold”, and that he had not intended to run in any case because he had only recently been re-elected to council. Mudgeeraba was also the scene of rivalry between Bates and Shepherd before the 2006 election, when a late backdown by Shepherd prevented them going head-to-head in a destructive three-cornered contest.

Lawrence Springborg took a major gamble in the third week of the campaign when he refused to match Labor's $60 million commitment to an upgrade of Carrara Stadium, located in Gaven. Labor had trouble of its own when Anna Bligh announced the project earlier in the week: whereas the consortium was shooting for entry at the 2011 season, Labor initially circulated a statement putting it at 2012, and a funding timetable showed the final instalment scheduled for 2012-13. Springborg's prompt declaration that the measure was too expensive provoked outrage from the Gold Coast Bulletin, which had earlier taken a stick to the LNP over a tourism package that promised equal funding to the Gold Coast and Mount Isa. Labor linked Springborg's position to litigious LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, who owns a potential competitor in the Gold Coast United soccer team. Springborg made a late withdrawal from a Chamber of Commerce luncheon the following day, at which he seemed likely to face a frosty reception. The official reason was that Springborg did not wish to share equal billing with Deputy Premier Paul Lucas in the absence of Anna Bligh, but Sue Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin reported that organisers “always warned that Ms Bligh had not accepted the invitation and was unlikely to attend”.

Nonetheless, Springborg seems to be gaining at least some traction with his message that the LNP is sensibly prioritising transport and particularly health over sport. According to Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, “insiders in the Opposition Leader's camp insist he was acting on research showing health was the top priority for the Gold Coast”. For what it's worth, a self-selecting poll on the Gold Coast NBN television news showed 86 per cent opposition to Labor's promise. At the start of the last week of the campaign, the LNP launched a television advertisement and accompanying website asking: “Would you rather your sick child go to a hospital, or a game of football? While Anna Bligh is playing games, Lawrence Springborg is saving the Royal Children's Hospital.” Nonetheless, LNP members in the region remained nervous about the policy. Ray Stevens, LNP member for Robina and candidate for its successor seat of Mermaid Beach, defied his leader to argue the party should be “opening up the Treasury books” to find finding for the upgrade. According to Mike Bruce of the Gold Coast Bulletin, “one LNP insider said that billionaire businessman Clive Palmer was front and centre” of the decision not to fund the stadium.

Labor has promised to spend $28 million putting two sections of a power line between Mudgeeraba and Tugun underground. This is that all-important $1 million more than the LNP promised to spend on the project last week. Sue Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin reports that the “Stop the Overhead Powerlines” group has been “campaigning against plans by Energex to run 110,000-volt powerlines through the southern Gold Coast for months, with thousands signing petitions and many turning up to public rallies”. Earlier in the campaign, the Courier-Mail reported that Springborg “seemed unaware of the details” when alerted to a press release from Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson stating $1.8 million would be spent on local traffic congestion on the M1.

In the second week of the campaign, Sue Lappeman reported that “polling seen by The Bulletin” showed Labor was “almost certain to lose”.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN