QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

MOGGILL Liberal 8.0%
Region: Western Brisbane Federal divisions: Ryan/Dickson
	BRUCE FLEGG Liberal National (top) ANDREW BRADBURY DS4SEQ BARRY SEARLE Independent PHILIP MACHANIK Greens ROBERT COLVIN Labor (bottom)

Moggill covers some of the outermost suburbs of western Brisbane, including Kenmore in the north and Mount Crosby to the west, along with the semi-rural hinterland beyond. It has been in Liberal hands at all times since its creation in 1986. The member from 1989 was David Watson, who led the party to the disastrous 2001 result which reduced it to three seats. Watson himself survived by just 0.9 per cent and relinquished the party leadership to Bob Quinn, before retiring at the 2004 election. Local doctor Bruce Flegg then retained the seat for the Liberals in fine style, adding 11.8 per cent on the primary vote and 5.4 per cent on two-party preferred.

Flegg came to the seat after a bitter preselection battle against Russell Galt, later to come to fame when he claimed Liberal Senator George Brandis had described John Howard as a “lying rodent” whose “arse” needed covering over the children overboard affair. Galt launched a Supreme Court challenge against his defeat, and only withdrew after the party agreed to cover his legal costs. Flegg's subsequent rise was all too swift: he immediately became the Liberals' deputy leader and transport spokesman, and was given the hugely significant health portfolio when the coalition agreement was reached in September 2005. Speculation of an early election in August 2006 activated Liberal members' long-standing concerns for their chances of re-election under Bob Quinn, enabling Flegg to topple Quinn with the support of four of the five other Liberal MPs.

An early election was indeed forthcoming, and Flegg soon showed himself to be less than adept at meeting the challenge. One day after the announcement, Lawrence Springborg and Flegg were unable to tell a press conference which of them would be Premier if Labor was defeated and the Liberals won more seats than the Nationals. Faced with outrage from members of his own party, as well as Labor's damaging line that a vote for the Liberals was a vote for the Nationals, Flegg was forced to recant. The Coalition campaign never fully recovered, and Flegg continued to suffer a series of gaffes on the campaign trail. It later emerged that Chatsworth MP Michael Caltabiano, soon to lose his seat, had contemplated a mid-campaign leadership challenge that was quashed by the intervention of John Howard, and that internal polling had the Liberals fearing they would lose every seat bar Surfers Paradise.

Flegg nonetheless remained leader after the election, and his moderate faction shortly secured control of the state executive at the expense of the troubled Santoro-Caltabiano forces. Rumours circulated in early 2007 that he would be challenged by the new member for Clayfield, Santoro-Caltabiano ally Tim Nicholls. In the middle of the year he came under attack on two fronts, with the Nationals openly calling for his removal and threatening the coalition would be terminated if he didn't go, while Liberals leaked polling showing Flegg would cost the party votes in Brisbane at the looming federal election. When the federal election was out of the way, Tim Nicholls made a bid for the leadership which split the party room four-all, with Flegg retaining the backing of Robina MP Ray Stevens, Noosa MP Glen Elmes and his deputy, Caloundra MP Mark McArdle. The stand-off was resolved when Flegg succeeded in putting McArdle forward as a compromise candidate. Flegg remained Shadow Treasurer, but was only offered a minor portfolio when the Liberal National Party merger took effect in August 2008. He refused this and has since been on the back bench, leaving the new shadow cabinet with just one member out of 17 from Brisbane.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain