QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

MERMAID BEACH Liberal 2.8%
Previously named Robina Region: Gold Coast Federal divisions: McPherson/Moncrieff
	RAY STEVENS Liberal National (top) IBOLYA MONAI DS4SEQ CHRISTINA LANDIS Labor (bottom) MARELLA PETTINATO Greens SHANNON CRANE Independent

Mermaid Beach is effectively a new name for Robina, located along the Gold Coast south of Surfers Paradise and north of Burleigh. It takes 81 per cent of Robina's voters and all of its territory, bar a short stretch of coast at Broadbeach (whose 700 voters go to Surfers Paradise) and the area between Robina Parkway and the Pacific Motorway in the west (whose 5700 voters go to Mudgeeraba). Two areas have been gained from Burleigh in the south: the coastal stretch at Nobby Beach and southern Robina further west, collectively accounting for 3500 voters.

Robina was created in 2001 in place of abolished Merrimac, which was itself created in 1992 due to rapid growth in the area. Merrimac then Robina were held for the Liberals by Bob Quinn, who first entered parliament as the member for South Coast in 1989. Along with Moggill and Caloundra, Robina was one of only three seats retained by the Liberals after the 2001 election, at which Quinn's margin was cut from 16.2 per cent to 4.0 per cent. He subsequently replaced David Watson as party leader, a position he held until he was rolled eight days before the 2006 election was called.

Quinn promptly announced his retirement, initiating a preselection battle won by former Gold Coast mayor Ray Stevens ahead of Mark Powell and Aaron Debattista, the respective candidates of the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano “Sicilian” and Bob Tucker/Bruce Flegg “western suburbs” factions. Graham Young of Online Opinion indicates that Flegg supporters shifted to Stevens when it was realised he had a better chance of defeating Powell. Stevens became Shadow Minister for Housing Affordability and Public Works in April 2007, moving to information and communication technology the following September before returning to his original portfolios when the Liberal National Party merger took effect in August 2008.

Speaking on Madonna King's program on ABC Brisbane in the second week of the campaign, Antony Green nominated Mermaid Beach as one of three seats where vote-splitting with independents might cause trouble for incumbents. In this case the danger comes from Shannon Crane, who polled 5422 votes (33.1 per cent) as candidate for the locally situated Division 11 at last year's Gold Coast City Council election and is now running in support of daylight saving. Ray Stevens caused trouble for his leader in the final week of the campaign when he contradicted him over the Carrara Stadium issue, saying the party should be “opening up the Treasury books” to find finding for the upgrade.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain