QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

MANSFIELD Labor 8.3%
Region: Southern Brisbane Federal divisions: Bonner/Griffith/Bowman
	PHIL REEVES Labor (top) DEAN LOVE Greens ADRIAN HART Liberal National (bottom) WENDY FITZGERALD DS4SEQ JESSE ALEXANDER WEBB Family First

Mansfield covers suburbs on either side of the Gateway Motoray about 10 kilometres south-east of central Brisbane, including Mount Gravatt to the west and Rochedale to the east. It further extends to semi-rural areas in the east around Burbank, whose small booths were the only ones the Liberals won in 2006. The redistribution has added 5000 voters from abolished Mount Gravatt to the west, while detaching 3500 at Rochedale to Springwood in the south-west and 1600 at Macgregor to Sunnybank in the south, adding 0.7 per cent to the Labor margin.

Mansfield has had a remarkable record as a litmus test seat since its creation in 1972, being won by the Liberals until the triumph of Joh's Nationals in 1983. It then became one of the seats that delivered Wayne Goss victory in 1989 when it was won for Labor by Laurel Power, who was in turn dumped by a 9.3 per cent swing at the 1995 election that ultimately led to Goss's defeat. Labor just scraped over the line when they came to power as a minority government in 1998, before securing a thumping margin with the 2001 landslide that remained intact in 2004 and 2006.

Labor's winner in 1998 was Phil Reeves, who endured a court challenge against his 80-vote victory in 1998 on which Labor's capacity to form a government was at stake. Reeves was a sports management and marketing consultant before entering politics, and is associated with the Left faction Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Union. He won a long-awaited promotion to parliamentary secretary after Peter Beattie's resignation in September 2007. Liberal National Party candidate Adrian Hart is chief executive of the Master Plumbers Association of Queensland.

PREDICTION: Labor retain