QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

LOCKYER Nationals 3.4%
Region: Rural Southern Federal divisions: Blair/Forde
	EMMA HINE Greens IAN RICKUSS Liberal National (top) JOHN KELLY Labor (bottom)

Lockyer covers rural areas between but not including Ipswich and Toowoomba, along with a narrow salient extending to the south of Ipswich. The main population centres are Gatton, 90 kilometres west of Brisbane, and Laidley, 15 kilometres south-east of Gatton. Lockyer was one of only two seats to be won by One Nation on more than one occasion, and has never been held by Labor in a history that goes back to 1888. Nationals member Tony Fitzgerald, who had won the seat from the Liberals in 1980, was defeated in 1998 by One Nation's Peter Prenzler, who polled 39.8 per cent of the primary vote to Fitzgerald's 25.5 per cent (down from 66.6 per cent in 1995) to finish 3.7 per cent ahead after preferences. Prenzler was in the City-Country Alliance camp by the time of the 2001 election, at which he was outpolled by One Nation candidate Bill Flynn (with the Nationals reduced to fourth place).

Leadership of the rump of One Nation did not help Flynn at the 2004 election, when Nationals candidate Ian Rickuss boosted his party's primary vote from 16.9 per cent to 34.9 per cent. Rickuss was given the role of parliamentary secretary to the Shadow State Development and Small Business Minister following the September 2005 coalition agreement, but lost it after the 2006 election. He has been opposition whip since July 2006.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain