QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

INDOOROOPILLY Labor 2.7%*
Region: Inner Western Brisbane Federal divisions: Ryan/Moreton/Oxley * Ronan Lee resigned from the ALP 5/10/2008
	JOHN BURKETT DS4SEQ RONAN LEE Greens (top) SARAH WARNER Labor (centre) SCOTT EMERSON Liberal National (bottom)

Indooroopilly covers the inner suburbs immediately west of the city, from Indooroopilly itself south to Fig Tree Pocket and east to St Lucia, along with Graceville and Sherwood on the southern bank of the river. The redistribution has added 2200 voters in the latter area from Mount Ommaney and Yeerongpilly while detaching 1100 voters around Toowong in the north to Mount Coot-tha, increasing Labor's margin by 0.3 per cent. The electorate was created at the 1992 election in place of abolished Toowong, a traditional Liberal seat which fell to the National Party with Joh Bjelke-Petersen's triumph at the 1983 election. Denver Beanland recovered it for the Liberals in 1986 and went on to become the inaugural member for Indooroopilly, serving as Attorney-General in the Rob Borbidge government of 1996-98. Beanland's troubled tenure in the latter role presumably contributed to the jolting 12.5 per cent swing he suffered at the 1998 election, which cut his margin to 0.7 per cent. The voters delivered the coup de grace in 2001 when Labor's Ronan Lee won the seat with a further 3.3 per cent swing.

A less crowded field in 2004 helped boost the Liberal primary vote by 5.8 per cent, but this only translated into a 0.8 per cent two-party swing. The 2006 election was similarly disappointing for the Liberals, with both major parties down fractionally on the primary vote and Labor picking up a two-party swing of 0.3 per cent. Ronan Lee meanwhile earned a reputation as something of an agitator, bucking the party line over uranium mining, privatisation, means testing and co-payments for surgery at public hospitals. In October 2008 he surprised everybody by quitting Labor to join the Greens, despite his conservative views on abortion and embryonic stem cell research. Claims emerged shortly afterwards that there was high turnover in Lee's electorate office due to his abusive behaviour towards staff.

Labor's difficulties have left the Liberal National Party well placed to at last recover a natural blue-ribbon seat. Their candidate is Scott Emerson, a former state political reporter for The Australian and more recently a director of public relations firm Crook Publicity. Emerson was frozen out of the preselection contest ahead of the 2006 election by a factional deal that delivered Indooroopilly to transport consultant Peter Turner and Mount Ommaney to former member Bob Harper, neither of whom won their seats. Labor candidate Sarah Warner is the daughter of Goss government minister Anne Warner, who has been described as a mentor to Anna Bligh.

Greg Roberts of The Australian reported in early February that internal Liberal National Party polling had Emerson trailing the combined Labor and Greens vote by 5 per cent, enough for him to win the seat in somewhat unconvincing fashion.

Jamie Walker of The Australian reported in the second week of the campaign on the prospects of Labor directing preferences to Ronan Lee as part of a broader deal, although this appeared to be based on speculation. More substantially, Walker related that “Labor officials privately play down the prospects of their candidate, Sarah Warner”.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN