QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

HINCHINBROOK Nationals 2.0%
Region: Northern Coast Federal division: Kennedy/Herbert
	MARK PLATT Labor (bottom) RAYMOND WILLIAM THOMSON Independent MICHELLE MACKLIN Greens ANDREW CRIPPS Liberal National (top)

Hinchinbrook covers about 200 kilometres of north Queensland coast to the north of Townsville and the south of Innisfail. The redistribution has expanded it at either end, adding 800 rural voters from abolished Tablelands in the north and 3600 at Bushland Beach and Mount Low on the outskirts of Townsville from Thuringowa. Labor's strength in the latter area has cut the margin from 3.7 per cent to 2.0 per cent. Hinchinbrook was created in 1950, and has been held by the National/Country Party for all but the first 10 years of its existence. The 1991 one-vote one-value redistribution removed the electorate's rural hinterland and limited it to coastal areas, making it notionally Labor going into the 1992 election. However, Nationals member Marc Rowell retained the seat before handsomely consolidating with a 12.1 per cent swing in 1995. The One Nation onslaught cut 26.1 per cent from Rowell's primary vote in 1998, which he did not recover in 2001. Labor preferences comfortably saved the day for him the first time, but their “just vote one” strategy almost starved him in 2001. Rowell won far more comfortably in 2004, gaining 13.0 per cent of the primary vote directly at One Nation's expense. Hinchinbrook councillor and independent candidate Andrew Lancini was a factor in the 2001 and 2004 elections, respectively polling 17.4 per cent and 21.4 per cent.

Rowell retired at the 2006 election and was succeeded as Nationals candidate by his 25-year-old media and research assistant, Andrew Cripps, who won preselection ahead of Hinchinbrook Shire deputy mayor Arthur Bosworth. While Cripps harvested an extra 9.6 per cent of the primary vote in Lancini's absence, he suffered a sharp 7.2 per cent swing on two-party preferred, with the Labor primary vote up from 24.2 per cent to 43.1 per cent. Cripps served as a parliamentary secretary from January 2008 until the Liberal National Party merger took effect the following August. He had to wait little more than a month to be handsomely compensated for his loss with the position of Shadow Natural Resources and Water position, filling a vacancy created when Stuart Copeland withdrew from the front-bench after his seat of Cunningham was abolished (he will now run as an independent in Condamine).

Mark Platt signalled that Hinchinbrook could probably be removed from “seats to watch” lists in the third week of the campaign, when he told the ABC he had “only ever driven through the electorate”, and that he had no immediate plans to correct this.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain