QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

HERVEY BAY Labor 2.1%
Region: South Central Coast Federal division: Hinkler
	PAUL BROWN Greens TED SORENSEN Liberal National (bottom) ANDREW McNAMARA Labor (top) JASON POWNING DS4SEQ PETER SCHUBACK Independent

The electorate of Hervey Bay includes the urban area of Hervey Bay and its immediate surrounds, along with uninhabited Fraser Island. The redistribution has transferred 2100 voters in the western outskirts to Maryborough, adding 0.3 per cent to the Labor margin. This area has experienced rapid development over the past three decades, transforming a series of fishing villages into a tourism centre and a magnet for retirees. The resulting population growth led to the creation of the Hervey Bay electorate at the 1992 election. The seat was won narrowly on that occasion by Bill Nunn, who had gained the predecessor seat of Isis for Labor in 1989. Nunn did very well to hold on in 1995 after picking up a small swing against the overall trend, but in 1998 the seat became one of 11 to fall to One Nation, whose candidate David Dalgleish relegated the Nationals to third place and coasted past Nunn on their preferences.

Dalgleish ended up on the City-Country Alliance side of the ensuing One Nation split, and the two camps spoiled each other's chances when they both ran at the 2001 election. With the anti-Labor vote splitting evenly between Dalgleish, One Nation and the Nationals, Labor's Andrew McNamara gained the seat with a comfortable 7.6 per cent margin. The Nationals vote was almost back to normal in 2004 (up from 17.2 per cent to 35.9 per cent), despite Dalgleish polling 12.6 per cent as an independent, and the seat returned to the marginal zone even though McNamara's primary vote increased slightly. A 2.2 per cent swing in 2006 further cut the margin to 1.8 per cent.

Andrew McNamara is a former solicitor aligned with the Labor Unity faction. He was repeatedly tipped for promotion during his first two terms, but had to wait until after the 2006 election for a parliamentary secretary position, and until Peter Beattie's departure in September 2007 for a cabinet berth as Sustainability, Climate Change and Innovation Minister. The Liberal National Party has nominated Ted Sorensen, whose 14 years on the recently abolished Hervey Bay City Council included eight years as mayor. Sorensen won a preselection vote ahead of Jan Rohozinski, the unsuccessful candidate from 2006.

Campaigning in the electorate during the second week, Lawrence Springborg promised an LNP government would spend $18 million on construction of a new local high school. During her own visit to the electorate a week later, Anna Bligh described Springborg's promise as “wild” and “unfunded”, arguing the $18 million promised would buy “a block of land and a nice toilet block”. The Fraser Coast Chronicle reported at this time that Traveston dam protesters were targeting the electorate with leaflet drops.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN