QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

GREGORY Nationals 12.0%
Region: Central Queensland Federal divisions: Flynn/Maranoa
	VAUGHAN JOHNSON Liberal National (top) CARLA DALTON Greens FABIAN WEBBER Labor (bottom)

Gregory is one of five electorates with lower than average enrolment due to the “notional electors” allowance for districts of more than 100,000 square kilometres, which adds 6544 notional voters to its enrolment total for purposes of boundary calculations. The redistribution has changed the appearance of the electorate substantially, with 3100 voters in the Charleville area transferred to Warrego, and the southern part of the Northern Territory border transferred to Mount Isa (impressive on the map, but affecting only 155 voters). Compensating gains have come in the east, from Bangall through Clermont to Blackwater, with the abolition of Charters Towers (4800 voters) and Fitzroy (4200 voters) drawing the electorate nearer the coast. The seat has existed in one form or another since 1878, and was a Labor stronghold from 1899 until the party split of 1957. It then fell to the Country Party, which has since held it without interruption.

Current member Vaughan Johnson assumed the seat in 1989 and was relatively untroubled by the challenge of One Nation in 1998, despite a 19.4 per cent fall in his primary vote. Even amid the Coalition's 2001 fiasco he easily won a two-horse race against Labor by 9.4 per cent, to which he added a further 8.0 per cent in 2004. Johnson was Transport and Main Roads minister in the Borbidge government, and has held an endlessly shifting array of portfolios in opposition. When Lawrence Springborg deposed Jeff Seeney as Nationals leader in January 2008, he was contentiously promoted from regional development, small business, industry and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander partnerships to police and corrective services, taking the latter portfolios from Burnett MP Rob Messenger.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain