QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

GLADSTONE Independent 2.0% versus Labor*
Region: Central Coast Federal division: Flynn * 2006 election result unadjusted for redistribution
	PETER O'SULLIVAN Labor (bottom) LIZ CUNNINGHAM Independent (top) KIRSTEN NEILSON Greens

Gladstone includes the coastal industrial city 500 kilometres north of Brisbane that bears its name, and extends about 80 kilometres westwards to Ambrose and southwards to Builyan. Apart from one negligible territorial adjustment, it has not been affected by the redistribution. Prior to the 1992 election the city formed the basis of the electorate of Port Curtis, which had existed since Queensland's foundation in 1858 and was held by Labor for all but two terms after 1915. Calliope Shire mayor Liz Cunningham came within 4.2 per cent of winning the new seat as an independent in 1992, and went one better in 1995 to defeat Labor member Neil Bennett by 3.1 per cent with Nationals and Greens preferences. Labor's defeat at the Mundingburra by-election of February 1996 left Cunningham with the balance of power, which she used to depose Wayne Goss's Labor government and install National Party leader Rob Borbidge as Premier. Despite the unpopularity of this move in her electorate, where the Nationals vote has ranged from 2.3 per cent to 7.4 per cent since 1998, Cunningham was narrowly re-elected in 1998 and 2001. Her position was not truly consolidated until 2004 when she picked up a 7.7 per cent two-candidate swing, despite having been charged for refusing to undergo a breath test in April 2002. Labor's nominee in 2006, Gladstone councillor and local solicitor Chris Trevor, succeeded in bringing the margin down from 11.2 per cent to 2.0 per cent. Trevor went on to win the seat of Flynn at the 2007 federal election.

The Liberal National Party has declined to field a candidate. Speaking on Madonna King's morning program on ABC Radio, Antony Green argued that optional preferential voting made them concerned that their own candidate might deprive Cunningham of votes. Labor has been making concerted efforts to recover the seat as a hedge against expected losses elsewhere: Kevin Rudd was sent into bat in the second week of the campaign, and Anna Bligh has visited twice during the campaign and once shortly before. During her visit a week out from the election, Bligh promised $30 million would be put up for an underground liquefied natural gas pipeline.

PREDICTION: Independent retain