QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

GAVEN Labor 3.2%
Region: Gold Coast Hinterland Federal divisions: Moncrieff/McPherson
	ALEX DOUGLAS Liberal National (bottom) DAVID MONTGOMERY Independent RAMIAH J. SELWOOD Independent SALLY SPAIN Greens PHIL GRAY Labor (top) DEREK RADKE Family First

Gaven covers two distinct areas inland of the Gold Coast coastal strip – Gaven itself in the north, and Nerang and Carrara to the south – along with the undeveloped Coomera Valley region further inland. The Carrara area and its 10,000 voters have been added by the redistribution, while in the north 6400 voters around Oxenford and 9800 voters around Helensvale have respectively been transferred to Albert and the new electorate of Coomera. Despite the substantial nature of the changes, the redistribution has had only a negligible impact on the Labor margin, as the area gained and the area lost are both strong for the conservatives.

Gaven was created at the 2001 election from parts of Albert and abolished Nerang, which was held by the Nationals from 1986 to 1989 and by the Liberals thereafter. The new seat had a notional Liberal/National margin of 7.0 per cent, enough to prompt the Nationals member for Albert, Bill Baumann, to jump ship from Albert to Gaven. However, the tidal wave across the Gold Coast in 2001 was such that Labor candidate Robert Poole prevailed by 7.6 per cent after preferences. The coalition agreement signed ahead of the 2004 election allowed the Liberals to contest the seat without interference from the Nationals, but their candidate Ray Stevens could only manage a 2.6 per cent swing against Poole despite a primary vote 5.3 per cent higher than Baumann's in 2001. Stevens went on to win Robina at the 2006 election, and will now contest its successor seat Mermaid Beach.

Robert Poole's political career ended during his second term after he embarrassed the government with the amount of time he was spending with his wife and children in Thailand. When Peter Beattie demanded his return in February 2006, Poole instead chose to resign, initiating a by-election on April 1. The Nationals rather than the Liberals had won the right to contest Gaven under the new coalition agreement reached in September 2005, despite the obvious trend away from the party on the Gold Coast. However, Nationals candidate Alex Douglas, husband of Gold Coast councillor Susie Douglas and a GP who had worked locally for 18 years, went on to defeat Labor candidate Phil Gray with a swing of 8.4 per cent. As with the Liberal by-election wins in Chatsworth and Redcliffe the previous August, the triumph proved short-lived: Gray again contested the seat for Labor at the September 2006 election, winning by a 3.1 per cent margin that compared with Poole's 5.0 per cent at the 2004 election and Douglas's 3.4 per cent at the by-election.

Phil Gray is a former president of the Left faction Queensland Public Sector Union, but the Gold Coast Bulletin reported before the last election that he had “swapped allegiances and been part of virtually every Labor Party faction over the past 15 years”. Gray served as campaign manager to Robert Poole in 2001 and 2004, but nominated against him for preselection in 2005 before “senior party members” persuaded him to withdraw. He has recently attracted an avalanche of negative publicity after threatening two women who had mildly criticised him with legal action. One was an invalid pensioner who was recovering from a stroke, from whom he demanded $10,000; the other a constituent who appeared to do nothing more than tell a public meeting she wouldn't vote for him. Anna Bligh responded that Gray needed to have “a long hard look at himself and his future and he needs to look at whether he is up to the criticisms of public life”. Gray is once again opposed by Alex Douglas, who won Liberal National Party preselection unopposed after contesting Fadden for the Nationals at the November 2007 federal election.

Lawrence Springborg took a major gamble in the third week of the campaign when he refused to match Labor's $60 million commitment to an upgrade of Carrara Stadium, located at the eastern end of the electorate. Labor had trouble of its own when Anna Bligh announced the project earlier in the week: whereas the consortium was shooting for entry at the 2011 season, Labor initially circulated a statement putting it at 2012, and a funding timetable showed the final instalment scheduled for 2012-13. Springborg's prompt declaration that the measure was too expensive provoked outrage from the Gold Coast Bulletin, which had earlier taken a stick to the LNP over a tourism package that promised equal funding to the Gold Coast and Mount Isa. Labor linked Springborg's position to litigious LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, who owns a potential competitor in the Gold Coast United soccer team. Springborg made a late withdrawal from a Chamber of Commerce luncheon the following day, at which he seemed likely to face a frosty reception. The official reason was that Springborg did not wish to share equal billing with Deputy Premier Paul Lucas in the absence of Anna Bligh, but Sue Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin reported that organisers “always warned that Ms Bligh had not accepted the invitation and was unlikely to attend”.

Nonetheless, Springborg seemed to be gaining at least some traction with his message that the LNP is sensibly prioritising transport and particularly health over sport. According to Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, “insiders in the Opposition Leader's camp insist he was acting on research showing health was the top priority for the Gold Coast”. For what it's worth, a self-selecting poll on the Gold Coast NBN television news showed 86 per cent opposition to Labor's promise. At the start of the last week of the campaign, the LNP launched a television advertisement and accompanying website asking: “Would you rather your sick child go to a hospital, or a game of football? While Anna Bligh is playing games, Lawrence Springborg is saving the Royal Children's Hospital.” Nonetheless, LNP members in the region remained nervous about the policy. Ray Stevens, LNP member for Robina and candidate for its successor seat of Mermaid Beach, defied his leader to argue the party should be “opening up the Treasury books” to find finding for the upgrade. According to Mike Bruce of the Gold Coast Bulletin, “one LNP insider said that billionaire businessman Clive Palmer was front and centre” of the decision not to fund the stadium.

The showpiece of the $700 million capital works program promised at the LNP launch on the Sunday before the election was a $260 million contribution to a Gold Coast rapid transit project. This will provide a light rail link from Helensvale through the Griffith University campus to the coast at Southport, and thence to Surfers Paradise, Broadbeach, Miami, Burleigh Heads and Coolangatta. Andrew Fraser of The Australian reported that “while the Gold Coast City Council has committed $120 million to the proposal, it depends on $380 million from the federal Government – money that has not been confirmed”. Earlier in the campaign, the Courier-Mail reported that Springborg “seemed unaware of the details” when alerted to a press release from Shadow Transport Minister Fiona Simpson stating $1.8 million would be spent on local traffic congestion on the M1. The Gold Coast Bulletin touched upon another local issue when journalist Peter Cameron blasted the government over its ongoing failure to deliver a promised fire station at Nerang.

In the second week of the campaign, Sue Lappeman reported that “polling seen by The Bulletin” showed Labor was “almost certain to lose”.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN