QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

DALRYMPLE Nationals 7.7%
New electorate Region: Rural Northern/Outback Federal divisions: Kennedy/Capricornia
	ADRIENNE FREEMAN Independent HARRISON H. DUNCAN Independent GLENN MARTIN Greens JASON BRISKEY Labor SHANE KNUTH Liberal National (top) ROSA LEE LONG One Nation (bottom)

The new electorate of Dalrymple (originally to be called Macrossan, but the name was amended during the public consultation process) merges the declining north Queensland electorates of Tablelands, from which it takes 16,400 voters around Atherton in the north, and Charters Towers, which provides 11,700 voters in lightly populated territory inland of Townsville. The abolished seats were respectively held by Rosa Lee Long, the last survivor of One Nation, and Shane Knuth, Nationals member and brother of former One Nation MP Jeff Knuth. Antony Green calculates that Lee Long has a two-party margin of 23.5 per cent over Labor in that part of Tablelands which has been transferred to Dalrymple, but no indication of her strength can be attained from the Charters Towers area. While the margin listed is that of National over Labor, the seat realistically looms as a contest between Lee Long and Knuth.

Shane Knuth recovered Charters Towers for the Nationals following Labor's aberrant victory in 2001, defeating sitting member Christine Scott with a 4.9 per cent swing. A pastoralist and former railway welder for Queensland Rail, Knuth was made Shadow Communities and Disabilities Minister immediately after his election, but was reduced to a parliamentary secretary position when the September 2005 coalition agreement forced him to make way for others. He returned as Shadow Mines and Energy Minister after the 2006 election, but was again demoted when Lawrence Springborg replaced Jeff Seeney as Nationals leader in January 2008, despite having supported Springborg in his leadership challenge.

Rosa Lee Long won Tablelands for One Nation at the 2001 election after the party's winner from 1998, Shaun Nelson, quit the party and contested the seat unsuccessfully as an independent. Lee Long polled 36.0 per cent against Labor's 24.8 per cent, the Nationals' 16.4 per cent and Nelson's 15.3 per cent, ultimately prevailing over Labor by 13.8 per cent. Lee Long bucked the party's trend at the 2004 election to win re-election with an extra 11.0 per cent on the primary vote. This made her the only MP ever to win consecutive elections as a One Nation candidate, and she has been the party's only MP since Len Harris's Senate term ended in mid-2005. Her vote further increased at the 2006 election, from 47.0 per cent to 50.1 per cent.

In an article in yesterday's Courier-Mail, Paul Williams of Griffith University stated flat out that “One Nation's Rosa Lee Long will lose her fight against the LNP's Shane Knuth in Dalrymple”.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain