QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

CONDAMINE Nationals 18.6%
New electorate Region: Central Queensland Federal divisions: Groom/Maranoa
	CRAIG SHEEHAN Greens TRACEY HARRIS Labor STEPHANIE BUGG Independent ROD WATSON One Nation RAY HOPPER Liberal National (top) STUART COPELAND Independent (bottom)

The new electorate of Condamine extends from the western outkirts of Toowoomba north-westwards along the Warrego Highway as far as Dalby 80 kilometres away, and southwards for about 40 kilometres to Pittsworth and Clifton. It is in large part the successor to abolished Darling Downs, from which it takes 17,000 voters in its northern half. The southern area comes from abolished Cunningham, providing 12,100 voters, and the outskirts of Toowoomba are from Toowoomba South, providing 2800 voters. The seat will be contested for the Liberal National Party by Ray Hopper, who has been member for Darling Downs since its creation at the 2001 election. Hopper presumably benefited on that occasion from the absence of a One Nation candidate, defeating Nationals candidate Peter Taylor by 1.1 per cent after preferences. He was subsequently welcomed into the Nationals fold, and effortlessly retained the seat in 2004 and 2006. Hopper was a shadow minister from the time he joined the Nationals until a coalition agreement was reached in mid-2005, when he was demoted to parliamentary secretary. He returned to the shadow ministerial fold a year later and has remained there since, taking on natural resources and water after the 2006 election and moving to food security and agriculture in the reshuffle that followed Cunningham MP Stuart Copeland's resignation from the front bench in September 2008.

Hopper could reasonably have expected that he would again be returned without incident, but his applecart was upset on the first day of the election campaign when Stuart Copeland announced he would contest the seat as an independent. Copeland had been left stranded by the redistribution and the rules of the Liberal National Party merger, which reserved redistributed seats for sitting members whose existing seats provided the majority of their voters. That meant Condamine went to Hopper, leaving Copeland seeking an alternative local seat. Mike Horan refused to budge from Toowoomba South, despite being 24 years Copeland's senior at 64, and Copeland professed himself uninterested in either Labor-held Toowoomba North or the distant seat of Beaudesert. He had initially reacted to the impasse by resigning his Attorney-General portfolio, moving to the back bench and announcing he would not contest the election. Copeland had served as a shadow minister since immediately after his entry to parliament, in portfolios including health and education. He was considered a rare commodity as a rising young performer in Nationals ranks, and the party's failure to accommodate him while Horan in particular remained was a source of considerable embarrassment for Lawrence Springborg, who had named Copeland a potential leader when he abandoned the position after the 2006 election.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain