QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

CLAYFIELD Labor 0.2%*
Region: Inner Northern Brisbane Federal division: Lilley * Liberal seat made notionally Labor by redistribution
	RANDLE THOMAS DS4SEQ ANDREW JEREMIJENKO Greens BRENDAN WONG Family First TIM NICHOLLS Liberal National (top) JOFF LELLIOT Labor (bottom)

Clayfield covers the area immediately north of the Brisbane River to the east of the city. The Gateway Motorway divides the electorate between a residential west, from Hamilton north to Nundah, and an unpopulated east, which includes the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport. The city end contains some of the strongest Liberal territory in Brisbane around Ascot and Albion, but this is balanced by Labor areas nearer the motorway and around Nundah. The redistribution has added 3000 voters in the Labor area of Glen Kedron and Lutwyche from Stafford in the west, turning a Liberal margin of 1.7 per cent into a Labor margin of 0.2 per cent.

The electorate was created when one-vote one-value was implemented in 1992, when it was won for the Liberals by Santo Santoro, previously member for abolished Merthyr. After being swept out by a 6.5 per cent swing in the 2001 landslide, Santoro found refuge in the Senate from 2002 until 2007, when he resigned after becoming embroiled in a share disclosure scandal. The incoming Labor member was Liddy Clark, a one-time presenter of the ABC's Play School who became an adviser to Arts Minister Matt Foley in 1998. Clark's success in limiting the swing against her to 0.8 per cent in 2004 cemented the admiration of Peter Beattie, who twisted arms to give her the cabinet post of Aboriginal affairs despite her lack of factional backing. Clark had an extremely troubled tenure in the position, first weathering a scandal over the presence of a wine bottle on a ministerial flight into a dry Aboriginal community in March 2004. She resigned in 2005 when the Crime and Misconduct Commission found her office had issued a false press release relating to its decision to pay for Carpentaria Aboriginal Land Council official Murrandoo Yanner to fly into Palm Island in the wake of the November 2004 Palm Island riots, shortly after Yanner had called for “payback” against the police.

Clark went on to suffer a 2.9 per cent swing at the 2006 election, more than enough to account for her slender 1.2 per cent margin. The winning Liberal candidate was Tim Nicholls, who previously represented Hamilton ward on Brisbane City Council. In November 2007 Nicholls made a bid for the Liberal leadership against Bruce Flegg, who as member for Moggill was the only other Liberal holding a seat in Brisbane. The eight-member party room was evenly split between the two contenders, and Flegg succeeded in putting Caloundra MP Mark McArdle forward as a compromise candidate. When Liberal president Mal Brough sought to have the party rank-and-file vote on the merger delayed in July, Nicholls was one of four Liberal MPs who threatened to quit and join the new party headed by Springborg. When the LNP shadow cabinet was unveiled the following month, Nicholls was given the Treasury and “future growth” portfolios, while Flegg was left on the bench.

Greg Roberts of The Australian reported in early February that internal Liberal National Party polling pointed to a “lineball” result in Clayfield, amid a generally grim picture for the party in Brisbane marginals.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL NOTIONAL GAIN