QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

CAPALABA
Labor 14.8%
Region: Redlands Shire
Federal division: Bowman
PAUL GLEESON
Liberal National (bottom)

MICHAEL CHOI
Labor (top)

CHAD KIRBY
Greens

Capalaba covers the northern inland suburbs of Redlands Shire about 15 kilometres south-east of the city, from Capalaba north to Thornside, east to Alexandra Hills and south to Burwood Heights. The redistribution has added 3700 voters in two areas from Cleveland in the east: the coastal suburb of Thorneside, and a small part of Birkdale. The electorate was created when the Goss government's one-vote one-value reforms increased the number of metropolitan electorates at the 1992 election. It was won for Labor upon its creation by Jim Elder, previously member for the abolished seat of Manly. The seat has been safe for Labor ever since, with the two-party margin only falling below 10 per cent in 1995. Elder became Deputy Premier when the Beattie government came to power in 1998, but resigned in November 2000 after being one of four Labor MPs named by the Shepherdson inquiry in relation to branch stacking allegations. His subsequent resignation from the Labor Party briefly cost the government its majority, which was restored in spades at the election held three months later.

Elder's successor in Capalaba was Michael Choi, who had been hand-picked by Peter Beattie without a preselection ballot. Labor's primary vote in Capalaba fell 10.5 per cent in Capalaba against the statewide trend, in large part due to a strong field of independent candidates and an entry by One Nation, who had not contested the seat in 1998. He nonetheless won the seat easily and was untroubled in 2004 and 2006, which saw a return to a straightforward three-horse involving Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Following the 2006 election he was promoted to parliamentary secretary for environment and multiculturalism, exchanging the former for transport, trade, employment and industrial relations in the reshuffle following Peter Beattie's departure in September 2007. He was soon dumped from transport after losing his licence for the third time. Choi is a member of the Labor Forum faction.

PREDICTION: Labor retain