QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

CALOUNDRA Liberal 1.7%
Region: Sunshine Coast Federal division: Fisher
	ROGER CALLEN Greens JODY TUNNICLIFFE Labor (bottom) MARK McARDLE Liberal National (top) JOHN M. FOGARTY DS4SEQ MIKE JESSOP Independent

Although it remains a natural conservative seat, the southern Sunshine Coast electorate of Caloundra has been shifted 2.5 per cent in Labor's favour by the redistribution. The new electorate of Buderim has pushed neighbouring Kawana south into Caloundra's northern and western suburbs, taking 12,800 voters in the strongly Liberal coastal suburb of Wurtulla along with Aroona and Caloundra West further inland. Caloundra has been compensated with 7050 voters in Labor-leaning territory in and around the Glass House Mountains west of the Bruce Highway, including Beerwah, Landsborough and Mooloolah Valley, which were previously in Glass House.

The Liberals have held Caloundra at all times since it was created in 1992. The inaugural member was the then Liberal leader Joan Sheldon, who won the predecessor seat of Landsborough from the Nationals at the 1990 by-election brought on by the resignation of former Premier Mike Ahern. Sheldon was leader from November 1991 until standing aside after the 1998 election. She emerged as one of only three Liberals left standing after the 2001 election, when she held on by 1.0 per cent. Mark McArdle added little to the margin when Sheldon retired in 2004, and might have been in trouble if not for a weak flow of Greens preferences to Labor. He had a slightly more comfortable time in 2006, with local discontent over water issues contributing to a 3.3 per cent swing.

A former director of Boyce Garrick Lawyers, McArdle quickly rose to the position of Shadow Attorney-General when a coalition agreement was reached in September 2005. He rose yet further after moving the spill motion against Bob Quinn's leadership on August 7, winning the deputy leadership position vacated by Quinn's successor Bruce Flegg. This was despite the controversy that followed McArdle throughout his debut term resulting from Boyce Garrick Lawyers' involvement in failed first-mortgage property schemes which burned mostly elderly investors. He unexpectedly attained the Liberal leadership in December 2007 when Flegg put him forward as a compromise candidate after the party room was locked four-all between him and Clayfield MP Tim Nicholls, with McArdle among those backing Flegg. The Liberal National Party merger in July 2008 saw him take on the positions of Deputy Opposition Leader and Shadow Health Minister.

Shadow Transport Minister and Maroochydore MP Fiona Simpson announced a week out from polling day that $785 million would be spent building a rail line from Caloundra to Maroochydore by 2015, but Lawrence Springborg was subsequently forced to admit this was merely an an “aspiration”. The proposal as announced will not connect the line to the larger rail network. Earlier in the campaign, Simpson promised a $640 million rail line from Petrie to Kippa-Ring which was later revealed to be “subject to financial constraints and GFC”, and surprised Lawrence Springborg by issuing a press release stating $1.8 million would be spent relieving traffic congestion on the Gold Coast. Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail went so far as to call Simpson “the Bruce Flegg of the 2009 election”.

PREDICTION: Liberal National retain