QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

CAIRNS
Labor 8.0%
Region: Regional City
Federal division: Leichhardt
JOEL HARROP
Liberal National (bottom)

JANICE SKIPP
Family First

DESLEY BOYLE
Labor (top)

STEVE BRECH
Greens


The electorate of Cairns contains slightly over half the city's population, with the outer and northern suburbs respectively covered by Barron River and Mulgrave. The redistribution has seen the electorate expand at both ends, adding 2400 voters at Edge Hill in the north and 1900 at Mount Sheridan in the south, without significantly affecting the margin. Created in 1888, the seat has been in either Labor or “independent Labor” hands since 1904. However, Antony Green observes that the party's hold has weakened as “the old blue-collar economy, based on sugar, mining and railways, is surpassed in importance by tourism and service industries for the rich retirees from down south”.

Cairns was held from 1983 to 1998 was Keith De Lacy, the Treasurer in the Goss government. When De Lacy retired, the state Labor organisation imposed Desley Boyle as candidate without a ballot of local members. Boyle went close to defeat at the hands of One Nation, who outpolled the Liberals and came within 2.3 per cent after preferences. Boyle's Nationals opponent in 2001 was Naomi Wilson, member for neighbouring Mulgrave from 1995 to 1998, whom she defeated with a two-party margin of 14.8 per cent. These gains were washed away by a 10.9 per cent Liberal swing in 2004, which Boyle blamed on concerns over Cairns Base Hospital. The government must have done something in the subsequent term to soothe local concerns, as Boyle was comfortably returned in 2006 with a 4.2 per cent swing.

Desley Boyle was a psychologist and former deputy mayor of Cairns before entering parliament, and has come to be associated with the Labor Forum/AWU faction. She was promoted to cabinet after the February 2004 election with the local government and planning portfolios, to which environment was added the following August. After the 2006 election she was shifted to child safety, and thence to tourism, regional development and industry in the reshuffle following Peter Beattie's resignation in September 2007.

In the second week of the campaign, Craig Johnstone of the Courier-Mail wrote that Labor was “comfortable with things in Cairns”, but that he was hearing a different story elsewhere.

PREDICTION: Labor retain