QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

BURDEKIN Labor 0.9%*
Region: Northern Coast Federal divisions: Dawson/Capricornia/Kennedy * Nationals seat made notionally Labor by redistribution
	LES WALKER Labor (bottom) MARIA CONSTANCE MacDONALD Greens ROSEMARY MENKENS Liberal National (top)

Burdekin covers the coastline from Townsville's southern outskirts through to Ayr and Bowen in the south, also extending to sparsely populated territory up to 150 kilometres inland. The redistribution has added more than 5000 voters in the strongly Labor region around Bowen from Whitsunday, which has turned the Nationals margin of 2.4 per cent into a notional Labor margin of 0.9 per cent. There have also been minor transfers of voters from abolished Charters Towers and to Thuringowa.

Burdekin was one of the 11 seats won by One Nation in 1998, when Jeff Knuth (brother of Shane Knuth, current Nationals member for Charters Towers and candidate for Dalrymple) outpolled Nationals candidate Terry Morato and defeated Labor by 9.4 per cent after preferences. Knuth quit One Nation in February 1999 and eventually became a member of the short-lived City-Country Alliance. A roughly even split between Knuth, One Nation and the Nationals at the 2001 election helped Labor's Steve Rodgers win by 5.1 per cent, the party's first win since the seat was created in 1950. The 2004 election marked a partial return to business as usual, despite Knuth's attempt to recover the seat as an independent. Rogers in fact gained slightly on the primary vote, but the consolidation of the anti-Labor vote behind the Nationals (up 12.7 per cent on the primary vote) translated into a 9.5 per cent two-party swing and victory for Rosemary Menkens.

Rosemary Menkens was a high school and TAFE teacher before entering parliament, and served as Nationals' spokesperson for child safety, seniors and northern development during her first term. She survived a 2.0 per cent swing to Labor at the 2006 election, at which Steve Rodgers attempted to reclaim the seat he had lost in 2004. Menkens has served in various shadow portfolios since June 2007, losing environment in the reshuffle that followed Lawrence Springborg's return to the leadership in January 2008, but gaining social inclusion and women's policy following the LNP merger. Labor candidate Les Walker was a Townsville City councillor from 2000 to 2008 serving division seven ward, which covers much of the Townsville end of Burdekin.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL NOTIONAL GAIN