QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

BROADWATER
Labor 6.6%
Region: Gold Coast
Federal division: Fadden
PETA-KAYE CROFT
Labor (top)

ROHAN TURNLEY
Independent

BEN MONAGHAN
DS4SEQ

RICHARD TOWSON
Liberal National (bottom)

GRAEME MAIZEY
Greens


Taking its name from the waterway that separates South Stradbroke Island from the mainland, Broadwater includes the island and the mainland suburbs of Paradise Point, Runaway Bay and Biggera Waters. The redistribution has transferred 3800 voters at Hope Island to the new seat of Coomera in the west, while adding 1300 voters at Labrador at the southern coastal end from Southport. The conservative leaning of the former area has helped boost Labor's margin by 1.4 per cent. Prior to Peta-Kaye Croft's surprise win in 2001, Broadwater was a Nationals stronghold held by Alan Grice since its creation in 1992. After a typical One Nation performance for a Nationals seat in 1998 (26.2 per cent of the vote, about 20 per cent lifted from the Nationals and the rest from Labor), most of the disaffected found it in them to vote Labor when the field narrowed to two in 2001, despite a spike in the informal vote. Given the strength of Labor's overall performance at that election, Croft did very well to pick up a further 1.7 per cent two-party swing in 2004, despite dropping 3.1 per cent on the primary vote in the face of competition from One Nation and the Greens.

The 2004 election result suggested the Nationals' time on the Gold Coast had passed, but they at first stubbornly refused to concede the Liberals the right to contest the seat at the 2006 election. An initial agreement that both parties would select candidates to be submitted to a joint party process in December 2005 fell apart, and it was eventually agreed that the Nationals would abandon Broadwater and Mudgeeraba while the Liberals conceded Hervey Bay and Redlands. Despite the clear run given to the Liberals, Croft managed a third successive two-party swing of 1.1 per cent. Labor's cause may have been boosted by a government decision in the first week of the campaign not to proceed with a controversial cruise ship terminal proposed for Southport Spit.

Peta-Kaye Croft was an administrative officer at Griffith University before entering politics, and is yet to have attained high office since. The Liberal National Party has nominated 31-year-old Richard Towson, described as a provider of consulting services to “a range of businesses in Queensland and New South Wales in the automotive industry”. Towson was briefly expelled by the Liberal Party in February 2008 after running unsuccessfully for Gold Coast City Council under the “Unite GC” banner against an endorsed Liberal candidate.

Lawrence Springborg took a major gamble in the third week of the campaign when he refused to match Labor's $60 million commitment to an upgrade of Carrara Stadium, located in Mudgeeraba. Labor had trouble of its own when Anna Bligh announced the project on the Monday: whereas the consortium was shooting for entry at the 2011 season, Labor initially circulated a statement putting it at 2012, and a funding timetable showed the final instalment scheduled for 2012-13. Springborg's prompt declaration that the measure was too expensive provoked outrage from the Gold Coast Bulletin, which had earlier taken a stick to the LNP over a tourism package that promised equal funding to the Gold Coast and Mount Isa. Labor linked Springborg's position to litigious LNP benefactor Clive Palmer, who owns a potential competitor in the Gold Coast United soccer team. Springborg made a late withdrawal from a Chamber of Commerce luncheon on the Wednesday, at which he seemed likely to face a frosty reception. The official reason was that Springborg did not wish to share equal billing with Deputy Premier Paul Lucas in the absence of Anna Bligh, but Sue Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin reported that organisers “always warned that Ms Bligh had not accepted the invitation and was unlikely to attend”.

Nonetheless, Springborg seems to be gaining at least some traction with his message that the LNP is sensibly prioritising transport and particularly health over sport. According to Steven Wardill of the Courier-Mail, “insiders in the Opposition Leader's camp insist he was acting on research showing health was the top priority for the Gold Coast”. For what it's worth, a self-selecting poll on the Gold Coast NBN television news showed 86 per cent opposition to Labor's promise. At the start of the last week of the campaign, the LNP launched a television advertisement and accompanying website asking: “Would you rather your sick child go to a hospital, or a game of football? While Anna Bligh is playing games, Lawrence Springborg is saving the Royal Children's Hospital.” Nonetheless, LNP members in the region remained nervous about the policy. Ray Stevens, LNP member for Robina and candidate for its successor seat of Mermaid Beach, defied his leader to argue the party should be “opening up the Treasury books” to find finding for the upgrade. According to Mike Bruce of the Gold Coast Bulletin, “one LNP insider said that billionaire businessman Clive Palmer was front and centre” of the decision not to fund the stadium.

In the second week of the campaign, Sue Lappeman reported that “polling seen by The Bulletin” showed the seat was “in doubt”, but “Peta-Kaye Croft's personal following ... may save her”. Two days out from election day, a report on internal polling by Peter van Onselen in The Australian said Labor was “tracking badly” in the seat, indicating a swing of between 8 and 10 per cent.

PREDICTION: Labor retain