QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

ASPLEY Labor 3.1%
Region: Northern Brisbane Federal divisions: Petrie/Lilley
	TRACY DAVIS Liberal National (bottom) ALLAN VINCENT Family First BONNY BARRY Labor (top) PETER JEREMIJENKO Greens

Aspley is located in the northern suburbs of Brisbane, extending north from Aspley itself to Pine River. Labor is strong around Bald Hills in the north and on the eastern side of the Gympie Arterial Road, while the southern suburbs of McDowall and especially Bridgeman Downs are strongly conservative. The redistribution has ceded 1100 voters in Sandgate and 2900 to Pine Rivers in the north, while adding 3200 around McDowall from Everton in the south. This southwards reorientation has weakened Labor slightly, cutting the margin from 4.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

Aspley has usually been held by the Liberals since its creation in 1960, although it was lost during the incursion into Brisbane by Joh's Nationals in 1983 and 1986. The Liberals recovered the seat in 1989 and withstood strong Labor challenges in 1992 and 1998. Only with the 2001 wipeout did Labor get over the line, and a conservative recovery has always been a matter of when rather than if. Labor member Veronica “Bonny” Barry, a former oncology nurse and member of the Left faction, has since retained the seat amid the Liberals' ongoing failure to rebuild in Brisbane, with essentially no swing recorded in either 2004 or 2006. Barry became a beneficiary of Peter Beattie's creation of five new parliamentary secretary positions after the 2006 election, taking on education and training.

The Liberal National Party has nominated the Liberal candidate from 2006, Tracy Davis, who runs a kitchen manufacturing business in Brendale. Davis previously worked for Senator Sue Boyce, who is associated with the “western suburbs faction” of coalition merger sceptics that includes former leader Bruce Flegg and Liberal state presidents Bob Tucker and Bob Carroll.

Greg Roberts of The Australian reported in early February that Aspley was the “only bright spot” for the Liberal National Party in its Brisbane marginal seat polling, which showed them leading by 1 per cent in Aspley while struggling in Cleveland and Clayfield.

PREDICTION: LIBERAL NATIONAL GAIN