QUEENSLAND ELECTION 2009

ASHGROVE Labor 8.3%
Region: Western Brisbane Federal division: Bonner/Griffith/Bowman
	IAN SAUNDERS Independent RUTH SPENCER Independent KATE JONES Labor (top) ROBERT PAUL HOGG Greens BILL GRIEVE DS4SEQ SCOTT McCONNEL Liberal National (bottom)

Ashgrove covers inner western suburbs from Ashgrove north to Enoggera, and extends westwards through The Gap and Enoggera Reservoir to the hills beyond. The seat was held by the Liberals for all but one term from its creation in 1960 until 1989, when it was won for Labor by Demetrios “Jim” Fouras, who had been member for South Brisbane from 1977 until he lost preselection in 1986. Fouras held the seat until he retired in 2006, his closest shave being a 1.3 per cent margin in 1995. The redistribution has expanded the electorate's suburban area in both the north (adding 2600 voters around Mitchelton from Ferny Grove) and south (3000 voters around Ashgrove itself from Mount Coot-tha), while 4100 voters in its extremity east of Enoggera Road at Grange have been transferred to Stafford. The adjustments slightly favour Labor, whose margin increases from 8.1 per cent to 8.5 per cent.

The member since 2006, Kate Jones, is a former media adviser to Public Works and Housing Minister Rob Schwarten who came to the seat with the backing of his Labor Unity (Centre) faction. She was appointed deputy government whip in the shake-up that followed Peter Beattie's resignation in September 2007. Liberal National Party candidate Scott McConnel is an accountant who ran against Wayne Swan in Lilley in 2007.

Speaking on Madonna King's program on ABC Brisbane in the second week of the campaign, Antony Green nominated Ashgrove as one of three seats where vote-splitting with independents might cause trouble for incumbents. Here the threat comes from Ian Saunders, who according to Antony's blog “states he was a campaign manager for the previous Labor MPs in the seat, Tom Vievers and Jim Fouras”.

PREDICTION: Labor retain