THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

ROBINA
Liberal 8.8%

Located on the Gold Coast immediately south of Surfers Paradise, Robina came into existence at the 2001 election in place of the abolished Merrimac, which was itself created in 1992 due to rapid growth in the area. The member throughout has been recently deposed Liberal leader Bob Quinn, who first entered parliament as the member for South Coast in 1989. Along with Moggill and Caloundra, Robina was one of only three seats held by the Liberal Party after the 2001 election, at which Quinn's margin was cut from 16.2 per cent to 4.0 per cent. He subsequently replaced David Watson as leader and picked up a 4.8 per cent swing at the 2004 election. Quinn promptly announced his retirement after being rolled for the Liberal leadership on August 7, eight days before the elecction. Labor candidate Liz Pommer (right) is aligned with the Labor Unity faction, and was its unsuccessful candidate for the Gaven preselection. Her family connections include her late grandfather Jack Melloy, long-serving member for Nudgee, aunt Elaine Darling, former federal member for Lilley, and cousin Vicky Darling (daughter of Elaine), current Labor candidate for Sandgate.

The preselection to replace Bob Quinn was held on the weekend after the election was called, and was talked up as a factional contest between the candidates of the Santo Santoro/Michael Caltabiano "Sicilian" faction, 28-year-old Mark Powell, and the Bob Tucker/Bruce Flegg "western suburbs" faction, 24-year-old Aaron Debattista. However, the contest was won by the unaligned Ray Stevens (above left), a former Gold Coast mayor who ran for Gaven in 2004. Graham Young of Online Opinion indicates that Flegg supporters shifted support to Stevens when it was realised he had a better chance of defeating Powell. A Gold Coast Bulletin poll of around 375 voters in the second week of the campaign had Stevens leading Labor by just 3 per cent on the primary vote.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain