THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

HINCHINBROOK
Nationals 10.9% vs Independent

Region	Northern Coast
Federal	Kennedy
Outgoing Member	Marc Rowell (Nationals)
Candidates	Fay McKenzie (Greens) Andrew Cripps (Nationals) Steve Kilburn (Labor)
Click here for PDF map at Parliament House site

Hinchinbrook covers about 200 kilometres of the north Queensland coast to the north of Cairns and the south of Innisfail, the latter area having borne the brunt of Cyclone Larry in March. The electorate was created at the 1950 election and has been held by the National/Country Party for all but the first 10 years of its existence. The redistribution that followed the passage of one-vote one-value legislation in 1991 detached the electorate's rural hinterland and restricted it to coastal areas, making it notionally Labor. However, Nationals member Marc Rowell retained the seat in 1992 and picked up a 12.1 per cent swing in 1995. The One Nation onslaught cut 26.1 per cent from Rowell's primary vote in 1998 which he failed to recover in 2001. Labor preferences comfortably saved the day for Rowell in 1998, but their "just vote one" strategy almost starved him to death in 2001, when nearly 80 per cent of their votes exhausted. Rowell won far more comfortably in 2004, gaining 13.0 per cent of the primary vote directly at One Nation's expense. Hinchinbrook councillor and independent candidate Andrew Lancini was a factor in both the 2001 and 2004 elections, respectively polling 17.4 per cent and 21.4 per cent. Along with recently ousted Liberal leader Bob Quinn, Rowell is one of only two Coalition MPs who will retire at the election.

The Nationals preselection was won by Rowell's 25-year-old media and research assistant, Andrew Cripps (left), ahead of Hinchinbrook Shire deputy mayor Arthur Bosworth. Labor candidate Steve Kilburn (right) is a Tully firefighter who served for nine years in the Royal Australian Navy.

Late in the second week of the campaign, Jamie Walker and Steve Wardill of the Courier-Mail reported that Labor had a sniff of improbably victory here and in Burdekin and were pouring resources into the two electorates. Despite the retirement of Marc Rowell, this seems very hard to credit given the margin and the absence of conservative competition this time from One Nation and Andrew Lancini. The article quotes Coalition campaign director Geoff Greene mocking Labor's optimism, and concedes that Labor sources "with access to the party's internal research" believe the Nationals are "likely to retain them on preferences". But that can’t be right in the case of Hinchinbrook, because the preferences could only come from the Greens.