THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

HERVEY BAY
Labor 4.0%

Hervey Bay includes Fraser Island and the mainland coastal area immediately opposite. The latter area has become engorged with retirees and young families in the past 25 years, producing a solid urban sprawl where there had once been a series of fishing villages. This development led to the creation of the electorate at the 1992 election in place of the more rural seat of Isis, which Bill Nunn had gained for Labor in 1989. Nunn narrowly won Hervey Bay ahead of the Nationals in 1992 and 1995, doing very well to pick up a small swing against the trend of the latter election. Hervey Bay was one of 11 seats to fall to One Nation in 1998, when their candidate David Dalgleish relegated the Nationals to third place and coasted home on their preferences. Dalgleish ended up on the City-Country Alliance side of the mid-term One Nation split, and the two camps spoiled each other's chances by both deciding to run at the 2001 election. With the anti-Labor vote splitting almost perfectly between Dalgleish, One Nation and the Nationals, Labor's Andrew McNamara (left) enjoyed a comfortable 7.6 per cent victory. The Nationals vote was almost back to normal in 2004 (up from 17.2 per cent to 35.9 per cent), despite Dalgleish polling 12.6 per cent as an independent, and the seat returned to the marginal zone even though McNamara's primary vote increased slightly.

Andrew McNamara is a former solicitor aligned with the Labor Unity faction, and was widely tipped to fill one of its cabinet vacancies after the 2004 election. To the surprise of many, the position instead went to Kawana MP Chris Cummins. He was again overlooked for the vacancy created by Clayfield MP Liddy Clark's resignation as Indigenous Affairs Minister in March 2005. The Nationals candidate is Jan Rohozinski (right), a Hervey Bay councillor who was endorsed in February after the withdrawal of the original candidate, police officer Bernie Martin.

Media attending Lawrence Springborg’s opening of Nationals candidate Jan Rohozinski's electorate office at the start of the campaign were quick to pounce when they noticed three "young children" left unattended in a nearby car emblazoned with Rohozinski's campaign logo. Campaign workers quickly drove it away, and it was not clear whether the car or its occupants were hers. Rohozinski was also in the papers for refusing to resign from her position on Hervey Bay City Council in accordance with a contentious provision preventing sitting councillors from running at Queensland state elections. It appears that her position will be vacated automatically when the Electoral Commission processes her nomination, but most councillors observe the formality of resigning beforehand. Hervey Bay was one of four electorates covered by a Galaxy Research poll of marginal seats in the third week of the campaign (with a total sample of 800) which showed Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred compared with 53.4-46.6 in 2004.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain