THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

GYMPIE
Independent 10.0% vs Labor

Region	Regional City
Federal	Fairfax/Wide Bay
Candidates	Elisa Roberts (Independent) Beryl J Spencer (Family First) Jon Persley (Labor) David Gibson (Nationals) Paul Walter Marshall (Greens) Greg Houghton (One Nation) Rae Gate (Independent)
Click here for PDF map at Parliament House site

A seat bearing the name of Gympie has existed since 1873, barring an interruption from 1950 to 1960. The cataclysmic Labor split came in between, and what had traditionally been a Labor seat was held by the National/Country Party from its recreation in 1960 to 2001. In an area renowned for gun ownership, it was widely anticipated the seat would fall to One Nation in 1998. But while their candidate Ian Petersen polled a formidable 39.2 per cent, Labor preferences and a deluge of Nationals campaign resources (which proved to be sorely needed elsewhere) saved the day for party veteran Len Stephan. Stephan retired at the 2001 election and the new One Nation candidate, Elisa Roberts (right), succeeded where Petersen had failed at the party's high-water mark. Roberts had been on a work for the dole program before her election, having earlier spent four years in the army. She won the seat not because the One Nation primary vote held up – it fell to 25.7 per cent – but because Labor surged ahead of the Nationals, whose preferences (along with those of Petersen, who polled 16.2 per cent as the City-Country Alliance candidate) decided the result in Roberts' favour. Roberts quit her party in April 2002, two months after it ceased to be "Pauline Hanson's" One Nation, reducing it two seats in parliament. She contested the 2004 election as an independent and increased her primary vote to 33.4 per cent, widening her 7.7 per cent lead over Labor to 10.0 per cent after distribution of Nationals preferences.

Roberts announced on July 19 that she would not contest the election, then said she might reconsider a week later, then said she had "made her decision" not to run another week later, and finally said she would run after all when the election was called on August 15. Her reticence follows recent treatment for stress which she blames on "dirty personal attacks" by her opponents during what has been an eventful term for her. In November last year, Roberts alleged outside of parliament that Liberal leader Bob Quinn tried to induce her to join the party with an offer of $60,000 in electoral aid. The Nationals were enraged to learn of a Liberal move on "their" seat of Gympie, as well as a breach of an agreement that neither party would attempt to poach former One Nation members. Lawrence Springborg went so far as to call for Bob Quinn to step down pending a bribery investigation, a call not reciprocated by Peter Beattie. Quinn threatened to sue Roberts after the police cleared him in January on the grounds of insufficient evidence.

At around the same time, Roberts was sued for unfair dismissal by an electorate officer who was sacked after his cattle dog mauled Roberts' pet chihuauha Popsicle to death. Another staffer, Tracy Flint, emerged with claims Roberts took her to New Zealand to "hold her hand" while she visited a friend. Roberts denied that the trip was taxpayer-funded, and that she had told Flint she did not need to take leave. Flint also claimed Roberts had told Bob Quinn she would consider his offer to join the Liberals after the election, and disputed her claim that a bribe had been involved. Peter Beattie and Pauline Hanson came to Roberts' defence at the time, saying she was being unfairly treated by the Coalition parties. In March, Roberts caused a stir when she walked out of a police ceremony at Tin Can Bay complaining that officers had been ignoring her. This prompted the wives of two officers who were awarded bravery medals at the ceremony to write to the Gympie Times accusing Roberts of throwing a "hissy fit" and swearing at officers. The letters would have remained in the musty pages of an independent newspaper's archives, beyond even the reach of Factiva, if Roberts had not engaged a lawyer to demand an apology from the two women under threat of a defamation suit. On April 30 the Sunday Mail quoted her saying she feared for her life as a result of her dispute with the police, and that she was worried she would be "found by the side of the road somewhere".

The Nationals candidate is David Gibson (left), a former army officer who until recently was general manager of the aforementioned Gympie Times. At the height of Roberts' troubles in December, Gibson claimed to have been targeted by Roberts supporters with abusive phone calls and letters. Also running is Labor’s candidate from 2001 and 2004, Rae Gate, this time as an independent protesting against the Mary River dam. Labor's official candidate is Quentin Tarantino lookalike Jonathan Persley (right), who played a bit of basketball in 1998. Beyond that nothing is known of him, not even by the Gympie Times, which has gone to more trouble than I ever will. It should be noted that Labor has nothing to gain from a strong performance here, as it has no chance of winning the seat and no incentive to rock Roberts' boat.

The overriding issue in Gympie will unquestionably be the government's plan to dam the Mary River at Traveston Crossing, located in the electorate. The dam will inundate about 900 properties and a 9 kilometre section of the four-lane Bruce Highway, leaving the railway hamlet of Kandanga surrounded by a moat – "the New Orleans of the southern hemisphere", if Lawrence Springborg is to be believed. Despite her criticism of the proposal and the lack of consultation accompanying it, Roberts' handling of the issue was praised by Peter Beattie in parliament. Beattie's guile in adopting a sympathetic posture towards Roberts was appreciated by Bob Katter, who noted that she could end up "the difference between government and non-government" – an important distinction in politics.

Roberts’ off-again, on-again, off-again, on-again campaign for re-election was declared off again late in the third week of the campaign, then on again at the start of the fifth. The last of these decisions amounted to Roberts saying she would serve if elected given that it was too late for her name to be removed from the ballot paper. Given that voters would presumably prefer a candidate who clearly wanted the job, the distinction is unlikely to be significant.

ASSESSMENT: NATIONALS GAIN