THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

CLAYFIELD
Labor 1.2%

Clayfield covers the area immediately north of the Brisbane River to the east of the city. The Gateway Motorway serves as a dividing line between a residential west, from Hamilton north to Nundah, and an unpopulated east, including the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport. The city end of the electorate contains some of the strongest Liberal territory in Brisbane around Ascot and Albion, but this is balanced out by Labor areas nearer the motorway and around Nundah. Clayfield was created when one-vote one-value was instituted at the 1992 election, when it was won for the Liberals by Santo Santoro, previously member for the abolished seat of Merthyr. Santoro was swept out in the 2001 landslide by a 6.5 per cent swing, and has since found refuge in the Senate. The incoming Labor member was Liddy Clark (right), a one-time presenter of Play School who became an adviser to Arts Minister Matt Foley in 1998. Clark did well to retain her seat at the 2004 election, limiting the swing against her to 0.8 per cent. This cemented the admiration of Peter Beattie, who twisted arms to give her the cabinet post of Aboriginal affairs despite her lack of factional backing.

Clark found trouble in her difficult new portfolio before the end of the first fortnight. In March 2004, a refueller noticed a bottle of wine on a light aircraft which Clark and her retinue had flown into a dry area on Cape York, potentially constituting a criminal offence. At first, responsibility was taken by Teresa Mullan, Clark's old friend and media adviser. Peter Beattie reacted by sacking Mullan, assuring the public: "had the minister been aware that the wine was on board, she would now not be a minister". However, Mullan changed her tune the following day, declaring that not only had everyone on the plane known of the bottle, but she had said as much to Beattie's chief-of-staff Rod Whiddon. Beattie responded to the resulting public outcry by admitting he had over-reacted in sacking Mullan, who was reinstated with a job in Beattie's own department. Clark rode out the storm while the matter was investigated by the Crime and Misconduct Commission, which reported in late April that her knowledge of the bottle could not be substantiated, and that no offence had occurred in any case because the tarmac did not constitute a public place.

Clark's shaky hold on her cabinet post was further loosened by a major controversy in the wake of the Palm Island riots, which were sparked by an Aboriginal death in custody on 19 November 2004. When Clark visited the community the following month, she agreed to a suggestion by Carpentaria Aboriginal Land Council officials Brad Foster and Murrandoo Yanner that they should accompany her owing to the still "volatile" situation there. A decision by Clark's office to carry the cost of the airfares was reversed by the Premier's office, which was sensitive to the politics of Yanner's call for "payback" against police in the immediate aftermath of the riot. Information about the original decision was leaked to the Queensland Police Union, whose president Gary Wilkinson called for Clark's resignation. Clark's advisers subsequently composed a press statement stating that the bookings were made "on the understanding" that the cost would be borne by Foster and Yanner, who promptly made clear that their understanding had been quite different. Yanner went on to claim that Clark's office had asked him and Foster to participate in a cover-up. Another investigation was conducted by the Crime and Misconduct Commission, which reported on 1 March 2005 that Clark either knew or "ought to have known" that the contents of the press statement were false. After a long talk with the Premier, Clark announced her resignation.

The Liberal aspirant for this low-hanging piece of fruit is Tim Nicholls (left), who represents Hamilton ward on Brisbane City Council. Nicholls secured preselection with a narrow 82-80 win over Sally Hannah, the unsuccessful candidate in 2004.

Conflicting reports emerged early in the campaign regarding Labor's prospects here. In the second week, it was variously reported in the Courier-Mail that Labor was "increasingly confident" of retaining Clayfield and Indooroopilly, and that it was "pessimistic" about them. Given its location between the city and the airport, Clayfield was an obvious target of the Coalition’s promise in the third week of the campaign to spend an extra $1.4 billion bringing forward completion of the Airport Link and adjoining North-South Bypass Tunnel under the city. At around the time the promise was made, Clayfield was one of four electorates covered by a Galaxy Research poll of marginal seats (with a total sample being 800) which showed Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred compared with 53.4-46.6 in 2004.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN