THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

CHATSWORTH
Labor 11.4%/Liberal 2.5%

Chatsworth was the scene of one of two by-elections held on 20 August 2005 in which Labor seats fell to the Liberals, the other being Redcliffe. This was seen as the more portentous of the two results as the new Liberal member was Michael Caltabiano, a powerful factional warlord and instant leadership contender. The electorate, which is located about 15 kilometres south-east of the CBD from Carina east to Tingalpa Creek, had last been held by the Liberals from its creation in 1960 until 1977. It was then won for Labor by Terry Mackenroth, who cemented the party's hold over successive elections and presumably took a big personal vote with him into retirement in July 2005. The ensuing by-election saw the Liberals pick up a 13.9 per cent swing to win by a two-party margin of 2.5 per cent, their primary vote up from 35.0 per cent to 48.3 per cent. Labor's booth results in 2004 had been highest at Carina in the west and Tingalpa and Bayside in the north, but this pattern was interrupted by the uneven swing at the by-election. This can be put down to Caltabiano's personal vote in the southern half of the electorate covered by the Chandler ward, which he represented on Brisbane City Council. The most significant of these results was the 19.5 per cent swing in the electorate's largest booth, Belmont; further north the swings were around 7 per cent.

Along with former Clayfield MP and current Senator Santo Santoro, Michael Caltabiano (left) is one of the two leading figures in a Liberal Party grouping known somewhat crudely as the "Sicilian faction". The main rival faction is headed by former state party president Bob Tucker and includes the party's new leader, Bruce Flegg. Caltabiano was elected to Chandler ward in 1996 and rose to the position of council Opposition Leader in March 2000, but resigned in August 2001 in protest at being dumped from the party state executive position that had traditionally gone with the leadership. The following February he became state party president, eventually relinquishing the role upon his entry into parliament. Caltabiano became Shadow Treasurer after Flegg replaced Bob Quinn as Liberal leader on August 7, as Flegg opted to remain Shadow Health Minister rather than assume the Treasury portfolio that traditionally went with the job. Flegg had been at the centre of a major brawl between the two factions before his entry into parliament at the 2004 election, which followed his preselection win for the seat of Moggill over Caltabiano factional operative Russell Galt. Galt reacted to his defeat with a divisive bid to have it overturned in the Supreme Court, which he was persuaded to withdraw by senior figures in the federal party.

Labor has assigned the task of recovering Chatsworth to a well-known local face in Chris Bombalas (right), a veteran sports reporter and rugby league commentator for Channel Nine. In late June, days after he accepted a voluntary redundancy payout as part of cost-cutting at the Nine Network, reports emerged that Labor was approaching Bombolas to run for parliament – not in Chatsworth, but in the corresponding federal seat of Bonner, held for the Liberals by just 0.6 per cent. A deal was then arranged in which Bombolas would instead run for Chatsworth, and factional backing for Bonner would be given to Chris Forrester, who had been the unsuccessful candidate at the by-election. On August 12, Matthew Franklin of The Australian reported that Forrester's end of the deal was unravelling because of a rebellion among local members, who wished for the seat to go to Brisbane City Councillor Kerry Rae.

Michael Caltabiano was all over the news early in the campaign after he contradicted party leader Bruce Flegg's assertion that Lawrence Springborg would be Premier in a Coalition government regardless of which party won the most seats. Many detected the influence of Caltabiano's own leadership ambitions in his actions, with more than one commentator noting that the dissension was endangering his precarious hold on his own seat. It was suggested that Caltabiano might like to try replacing outgoing former Liberal leader Bob Quinn in the much safer seat of Robina, but he quickly rejected this as "ridiculous". Despite the small sample of 200, the TNS poll of the electorate published on August 20 would have been sobering news for Michael Caltabiano: he trailed 38-62 on two-party preferred and 36 per cent to 55 per cent on the primary vote after distribution of the undecided.

ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN