THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

BURDEKIN
Nationals 4.4%

Burdekin covers the coastline from south of Townsville southwards past Ayr to Bowen, and also extends into sparsely populated territory about 100 kilometres inland. It was among the 11 seats won by One Nation at the 1998 election, when Jeff Knuth (brother of Shane Knuth, the current Nationals member for Charters Towers outpolled Nationals candidate Terry Morato 33.1 per cent to 28.9 per cent and defeated the Labor candidate by 9.4 per cent on two-party preferred. Knuth quit One Nation in February 1999 and eventually became a member of the short-lived City-Country Alliance. A roughly even split between Knuth, One Nation and the Nationals at the 2001 election helped Labor's Steve Rodgers to a 5.1 per cent two-party victory, the party's first win since the seat was created in 1950. The 2004 election marked a partial return to business as usual, despite Jeff Knuth's attempt to recover the seat as an independent. Steve Rogers in fact gained slightly on the primary vote, but the consolidation of the anti-Labor vote behind the Nationals (up 12.7 per cent) translated into a 9.5 per cent two-party swing and victory for Rosemary Menkens.

Rosemary Menkens (left) was a high school and TAFE teacher before entering parliament, and was made the Nationals' spokesperson for the key 2004 election issue of child safety soon afterwards. She maintained this responsibility when the Coalition agreement was reached in September 2005, and has also acquired the seniors and northern development portfolios. Steve Rodgers (right) ran a carpet cleaning business before his improbable victory in 2001, and has been working for the Australian Services Union since his defeat in 2004.

Late in the second week of the campaign, Jamie Walker and Scott Ardill of the Courier-Mail reported that Labor was sufficiently excited about the chances of unlikely victories in Burdekin and Hinchinbrook to be pouring resources into the two electorates. However, the article also quoted Coalition campaign director Geoff Greene mocking Labor’s optimism, and conceded that Labor sources "with access to the party’s internal research" believe the Nationals are "likely to retain them on preferences".

ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain