THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

BROADWATER
Labor 4.1%

Region	Gold Coast
Federal	Fadden
Candidates	John Caris (Liberal) Peta-Kaye Croft (Labor) Lesley Millar (One Nation) Julie-ann Teluk (Greens) Maurie Carroll (Independent)
Click here for PDF map at Parliament House site

Taking its name from the waterway that separates South Stradbroke Island from the mainland, Broadwater includes the island and the mainland suburbs of Paradise Point, Runaway Bay and Biggera Waters. Ongoing population growth in the area has left the electorate well over quota with more than 30,000 voters on the roll. Until Peta-Kaye Croft's surprise win in 2001, Broadwater was a former Nationals stronghold held by Alan Grice from its creation in 1992. After a typical One Nation performance for a Nationals seat in 1998 (26.2 per cent, about 20 per cent lifted from the Nationals and the rest from Labor), most of the disaffected found it in them to vote Labor when the field narrowed to two at the 2001 election, despite an inevitable spike in the informal vote. Given the strength of Labor's overall performance at that election, Croft did very well to pick up a 1.7 per cent two-party swing in 2004, despite dropping 3.1 per cent on the primary vote in the face of competition from One Nation and the Greens.

Peta-Kaye Croft (right) was an administrative officer at Griffith University before entering politics and is yet to have attained high office since, although she is one of many Peter Beattie has touted as potential ministerial material. The Gold Coast Bulletin reports that Croft has a high profile locally – specifically, it has twice said she would "turn up to the opening of an envelope". Croft survived a minor embarrassment last year when the media received leaked emails referring to a complaint by two of her electorate office staff that led to them being relocated, prompting the opposition to accuse her of bullying. She was also in the news a year earlier when her 79-year-old father and his 73-year-old partner were savagely beaten, for which the offender received seven years' jail.

The 2004 election result suggested the Nationals' time on the Gold Coast had passed, but they were at first stubbornly unwilling to concede the right to contest the seat. It was initially agreed that both parties would select candidates to be submitted to a joint party process in December 2005, but the Nationals withdrew after they "grew suspicious of the Liberal Party's intentions", according to Suzanne Lappeman of the Gold Coast Bulletin. The Liberals had nominated Christopher Stear, racehorse owner, party fund-raiser and business associate of Michael Kroger, who was aligned locally with Santo Santoro, Michael Caltabiano and federal Moncrieff MP Steve Ciobo. Stear was forced to withdraw in February due to ill health, and a second preselection held in April was won by Brisbane pharmacy chain owner John Caris (left). Peter Cameron of the Gold Coast Bulletin reported that Caris "had to rely on strings reaching all the way to the John Howard throne to win endorsement". Many in the party were reportedly angry that the nomination of John Nicholls, former adviser to Bob Quinn, was rejected on both occasions, ostensibly because he exaggerated his credentials on the application form (as discussed by Graham Young at Ambit Gambit). Meanwhile, the Nationals had quietly nominated local graphic designer Michael O'Dwyer. The dispute between the two parties ended with an agreement on June 5 that the Nationals would abandon Broadwater and another Gold Coast seat, Mudgeeraba, while the Liberals would concede Hervey Bay and Redlands. This prompted O'Dwyer to declare that Caris could not win because he lived in Brisbane.

In mid-July, the Gold Coast Bulletin conducted a survey of 749 voters in Broadwater, Burleigh and Mudgeeraba which pointed towards a 5 per cent anti-Labor swing, enough to tip Croft out if consistent across the area.

At the end of the first week of the campaign, Peter Beattie has announced that the controversial cruise ship terminal proposed for Southport Spit would not proceed because of concerns raised in an environmental impact study. The announcement displeased Gold Coast mayor Ron Clarke and was greeted warily by the anti-development Save The Spit Alliance. The site in question is on the cusp of Broadwater, Southport and the less electorally interesting Surfers Paradise, and was of sufficient interest to the broader region to have been a major issue in the Gaven by-election campaign. The election has been served well by opinion polls. A TNS poll of 200 voters published in the Sunday Mail on August 20 had Labor trailing 38 per cent to 48 per cent on the primary vote and 46-54 on two-party preferred. On September 2, Broadwater was one of four marginal seats covered by a Courier-Mail/Galaxy Research poll (the total sample being 800) which showed Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred compared with 53.4-46.6 in 2004.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain