THE POLL BLUDGER
Queensland Legislative Assembly Election 2006

ASPLEY
Labor 4.3%

Aspley is located in the northern suburbs of Brisbane, from Aspley itself north to Pine River. Labor's primary vote at the last election ranged from the high forties around Aspley to the high fifties at Strathpine in the north. The seat has traditionally been strong for the Liberals, though it was lost during the incursion into Brisbane by Joh's Nationals in 1983 and 1986, and withstood strong Labor challenges in 1992 and 1998. Only with the 2001 wipeout did Labor get over the line, and a Liberal recovery is a matter of when rather than if. Former oncology nurse Labor member Veronica "Bonny" Barry (left) did well to limit the two-party swing in 2004 to 0.4 per cent given that a Greens candidate had increased the field to three from two in 2001, draining 4.4 per cent from her primary vote. Barry recently underwent chemotherapy after being diagnosed with breast cancer last November, but will nonetheless be seeking a third term. Liberal candidate Tracy Davis (right) is described on the party website as "part-owner in a Brendale-based kitchen manufacturing business".

Aspley was one of four electorates covered by a Courier-Mail/Galaxy Research poll of marginal seats in the third week of the campaign (the total sample being 800) which showed Labor leading 56-44 on two-party preferred compared with 53.4-46.6 in 2004.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain