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THE POLL BLUDGER ALBERT
From its creation at the 1950 electorate until Margaret Keech's win in 2001, Albert was won by Labor on only three occasions – in 1972, when it was won by Bill D'Arcy (who later served as member for Woodridge, and is currently in prison for child sex offences); in 1989, when the Liberals directed preferences against Fitzgerald-tainted National Party minister Ivan Gibbs and helped deliver victory to Labor's John Szczerbanik; and in 1992, when Szczerbanki was re-elected. Bill Baumann recovered the seat for the Nationals in 1995, and went on to open the door to a disastrous three-cornered contest in 2001 by jumping ship for an ill-fated tilt at the new seat of Gaven. The fate of Nationals candidate Tony McMullan on that occasion illustrated the trouble the Nationals have holding seats when sitting members retire: he finished in fourth and final place with just 11.9 per cent of the vote, and the seat was won by Margaret Keech with a 12.6 per cent two-party margin over One Nation. Albert was assigned to the Liberals in the coalition agreement ahead of the 2004 election, and while they at least made the final two-party cut, that was little consolation given that Labor added 9.4 per cent on the primary vote and secured a huge margin in a traditionally conservative seat. Antony Green noted that "at previous big change elections, like 1974 and 1989, newly elected sitting MPs had a good record of holding on against the swing", and this would appear to be a perfect case in point. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain | |