Queensland Election 2004
| CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE | |||
| Region | Labor electorates | Non-Labor electorates | Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunshine Coast | (0.9) NOOSA | WARREGO (NAT 0.3 vs IND) | Southern Outback |
| Central Coast | (1.7) BURNETT | MARYBOROUGH (IND 0.5) †† | Regional City |
| Gold Coast | (1.8) BURLEIGH | MAROOCHYDORE (NAT 0.8) | Sunshine Coast |
| Regional City | (1.9) TOOWOOMBA NORTH | MOGGILL (LIB 0.9) | Western Brisbane |
| Inner Brisbane | (2.0) CLAYFIELD | CALOUNDRA (LIB 1.0) | Sunshine Coast |
| Northern Outback | (2.2) CHARTERS TOWERS | DARLING DOWNS (IND 1.1 vs NAT) ‡ | Rural Southern |
| Gold Coast | (2.4) BROADWATER | KEPPEL (NAT 1.5) | Central Coast |
| Sunshine Coast | (2.6) KAWANA | BEAUDESERT (NAT 2.0) | Rural Southern |
| Western Brisbane | (2.9) INDOOROOPILLY | HINCHINBROOK (NAT 2.8 vs ONP) | Northern Coast |
| Townsville | (3.6 vs IND) THURINGOWA | CALLIDE (NAT 2.3 vs ONP) | Central Queensland |
| Northern Brisbane | (4.7) ASPLEY | GYMPIE (ONP 3.3) ‡‡ | Regional City |
| Northern Coast | (5.1) BURDEKIN | GLADSTONE (IND 3.5) | Central Coast |
| Gold Coast Hinterland | (6.8) MUDGEERABA | MIRANI (NAT 3.8) | Central Coast |
| Redlands Shire | (6.9) REDLANDS | ROBINA (LIB 4.0) | Gold Coast |
| Ipswich | (7.3 vs ONP) IPSWICH WEST | SURFERS PARADISE (NAT 5.3) † | Gold Coast |
| Northern Cairns | (7.3 vs IND) BARRON RIVER | LOCKYER (ONP 7.3) | Rural Southern |
| Hervey Bay | (7.6 vs ONP) HERVEY BAY | ||
| Gold Coast Hinterland | (7.6) GAVEN | TOOWOOMBA SOUTH (NAT 7.9) | Regional City |
| Southern Brisbane | (8.6) MANSFIELD | CUNNINGHAM (NAT 8.6) | Rural Southern |
| South-West Brisbane | (8.7 vs IND) MOUNT OMMANEY | ||
| Regional City | (9.3) TOWNSVILLE | GREGORY (NAT 9.3) | Western Outback |
| Caboolture | (9.6) GLASS HOUSE | ||
| Northern Coast | (9.6) WHITSUNDAY | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (10.4) SPRINGWOOD | ||
| Gold Coast | (10.8) SOUTHPORT | ||
| Northern Coast | (11.3 vs ONP) MULGRAVE | ||
| Townsville | (11.4) MUNDINGBURRA | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (12.6) STRETTON | ||
| Gold Coast Hinterland | (12.6 vs ONP) ALBERT | ||
| Regional City | (13.5) MACKAY | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (14.1) GREENSLOPES | TABLELANDS (ONP 13.8) | North Queensland |
| Southern Brisbane | (14.2) MOUNT GRAVATT | ||
| Gold Coast | (14.5) CURRUMBIN | ||
| Redlands Shire | (14.6 vs IND) CAPALABA | ||
| Regional City | (14.8) CAIRNS | ||
| Regional City | (14.9) BUNDABERG | ||
| Inner Brisbane | (15.0) ASHGROVE | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (15.1) CHATSWORTH | ||
| Caboolture | (16.1) PUMICESTONE | ||
| Western Brisbane | (16.1) MOUNT COOT-THA | ||
| Northern Outback | (16.2 vs ONP) MOUNT ISA | ||
| Redlands Shire | (16.7) CLEVELAND | ||
| Ipswich | (16.8 vs ONP) IPSWICH | SOUTHERN DOWNS (NAT 16.8) | Rural Southern |
| Central Queensland | (17.2) FITZROY | NANANGO (IND 17.1) | Rural South-Eastern |
| Northern Brisbane | (17.5) EVERTON | ||
| Outer Brisbane | (17.6) REDCLIFFE | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (18.0 vs ONP) WATERFORD | ||
| Northern Brisbane | (20.5) FERNY GROVE | ||
| Eastern Ipswich | (21.1 vs ONP) WOODRIDGE | ||
| Outer Brisbane | (21.1) MURRUMBA | ||
| Outer Brisbane | (21.4) KALLANGUR | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (21.4 vs IND) INALA | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (22.2) YEERONGPILLY | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (22.3) LOGAN | ||
| Inner Brisbane | (22.4) STAFFORD | ||
| Southern Brisbane | (22.6) ALGESTER | ||
| Outer Brisbane | (22.7) KURWONGBAH | ||
| Cape York | (22.9 vs ONP) COOK | ||
| Inner Brisbane | (23.2) BULIMBA | NICKLIN (IND 23.4 vs ONP) | Sunshine Coast Hinterland |
| Regional City | (24.2) ROCKHAMPTON | ||
| Brisbane Bayside | (24.4) LYTTON | ||
| Northern Brisbane | (24.5) SANDGATE | ||
| Inner Brisbane | (24.9) SOUTH BRISBANE | ||
| Inner Brisbane | (25.0) BRISBANE CENTRAL | ||
| Northern Brisbane | (25.1) NUDGEE | ||
| Eastern Ipswich | (30.9) BUNDAMBA | ||
Key - Australian Labor Party National Party Liberal Party One Nation Independent * Region classifications are based on those used by Antony Green in his election summaries for The Public Record at ABC Online. Corresponding federal electorate information provided below is lifted from the Electoral Commission of Queensland. Results shown are based on outcomes from the election held 17 February 2001. † By-election held 5 May 2001 won by independent Lex Bell (8.1% vs LIB) †† By-election held 26 April 2003 won by independent Chris Foley (3.5% vs ALP) ‡ Elected as an independent, Darling Downs MLA Ray Hopper joined the National Party in December 2001 ‡‡ Gympie MLA Elisa Roberts resigned from One Nation to sit as an independent in April 2002 | |||
|
ALBERT (Labor 12.6% vs ONP)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain For the Liberal Party this was an election of little triumphs, like making the final two-party preferred cut in a traditionally conservative seat like Albert. Candidate Corey Kolar managed to harvest the collective National and Liberal vote from last time, plus 2.1 per cent. The Liberals can at least console themselves with the knowledge that they have at least made the seat safe from the National Party. The problem is that it's equally safe from the Liberal Party. Margaret Keech's primary vote pole-vaulted 9.4 per cent and she now sits on an incredible 17.3 per cent margin in what ought to be a marginal seat. Antony Green astutely noted in an observation available at Mumble that "at previous big change elections, like 1974 and 1989, newly elected sitting MPs had a good record of holding on against the swing" and this would appear to be a perfect case in point. Room for the Keech vote surge was made available by an imploding One Nation who plummeted from 24 to 7 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (17.3%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results ALGESTER (Labor 22.6%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Richard Bradley can feel pleased in having picked up roughly 5 per cent of the primary vote directly at Struthers' expense. One Nation and the Greens both fielded candidates after neglecting to do so last time, and both registered indifferent performances in the 5 to 6 per cent range. OUTCOME: Labor retain (18.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results ASHGROVE (Labor 15.0%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Coming right off the Micheal Giles and Dan Van Blarcom fiascos, a police complaint against Terry Mendies over a scrap with some local youths outside his house reinforced an image of the Coalition as a disorganised and inexperienced operation with a haphazard approach to candidate selection. The Poll Bludger doesn't doubt that the no-good punk kids who confronted Mendies were cruisin' for a bruisin' but a man with ambitions towards public life could surely have been handled the incident more discreetly. Unfortunately the attention generated by the incident brought other indiscretions to light - an EPA investigation into his company Harlequin Paints. Mendies achieved his preselection with help from perennial trouble-maker Michael Johnson, member for the local federal electorate of Ryan. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Poll Bludger may have been a bit kind in his assessment of Terry Mendies and his indiscretions. Treasurer of the Liberal Federal Electorate Council for problematic MHR Michael Johnson's electorate of Ryan, Mendies was given the full treatment by Channel Ten days before the election. With furiously dissatisifed customers in tow, the station's news program aired revelations that he was former proprietor of a failed roof repair business now being chased through the courts by the Building Services Authority (Graham Young has more at On Line Opinion). With this sterling pre-election publicity he can probably consider himself lucky that he was able to fractionally increase the Liberal primary vote on both the primary and two-party preferred measures. OUTCOME: Labor retain (14.7%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results ASPLEY (Labor 4.7%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A Greens candidate increased the field to three from two in 2001, and while the greater part of his 6.5 per cent share of the vote came at the expense of Labor, it does seem that an unusually large number returned to Labor as preferences. Only thus can we explain the ECQ figures showing Labor down 4.6 per cent on the primary vote but only 0.3 per cent on two-party preferred. OUTCOME: Labor retain (4.3%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BARRON RIVER (Labor 7.3% vs IND)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Poll Bludger picked up a lot of late-campaign intelligence that Labor might be in trouble in Barron River but couldn't see how, given that the Liberal Party came fourth in 2001 and none of the non-major party candidates taking the field on this occasion looked the goods. This ultimately proved a sound judgement but the Liberals' reasonably narrow defeat here can be reckoned one of their most encouraging performances. They more than doubled their primary vote from 2001 (from 16.2 to 38 per cent), presumably by gathering up most of Sno Bonneau's vote. Labor held steady in the 43 per cent range - accordingly the 4 per cent two-party preferred swing to the Liberals may be seen as the John Cherry effect in action. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.1%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BEAUDESERT (National 2.0%)
ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain In a straightforward case of votes coming home to the National Party, Kev Lingard gathered an extra 16.5 primary vote share out of a One Nation vote that fell from 29.5 to 10.5 per cent. This translated into a 6.1 per cent two-party preferred swing, another real-life measure of the John Cherry effect. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (8.1%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BRISBANE CENTRAL (Labor 25.0%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Beattie's independent challengers include indigenous candidate Adrian McAvoy, known locally as a busker and campaigner on the stolen wages issue. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Greens' vote rose healthily from 6.9 to 12.3 per cent, apparently at Beattie's expense - his primary vote was down 64.8 to 54.3 per cent. All the independents could probably have found better ways to spend their money. OUTCOME: Labor retain (19.6%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BROADWATER (Labor 2.4%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: On January 30 the Gold Coast Bulletin published a poll for this seat from an impressive sample of 413 which would have made grim reading for the National Party - Labor 52 per cent, Nationals 31 per cent, Greens 4 per cent, One Nation 3 per cent, 10 per cent undecided. The Poll Bludger has this Gold Coast electorate down as one the Liberals would be contesting if the Coalition was in any way electable, but for what it's worth Margaret Grummitt looks like a strong candidate with wide appeal to urban conservative voters. As a two-horse race in 2001, Labor's 2.4 per cent margin is untained by exhausted preference distortions - this time the Greens and One Nation have joined the party, and as the Gold Coast Bulletin poll suggests, they will largely cancel each other out as far as the two-party contest is concerned. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Labor have every reason to be pleased with their increased majority in this seat, while the Nationals should take the hint regarding their future chances of winning seats on the Gold Coast. My call about the Greens and One Nation candidates cancelling each other out did not appear to be correct, as the Nationals considerably narrowed their 8 per cent primary vote deficit after preferences. OUTCOME: Labor retain (4.1%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BULIMBA (Labor 23.2%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Only two candidates took the field in this unloseable Labor seat in 2001. This time a Green joined the party and his solid 11 per cent showing came entirely at the expense of Purcell, who dropped 12.2 per cent on the primary and 4.9 on the two-party preferred vote. The Liberals' primary vote nudged pitifully upwards. OUTCOME: Labor retain (18.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BUNDABERG (Labor 14.9%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Bundaberg looks safe on the basis of the margin above, but the result came down to the wire in 1995 and 1998 and Cunningham faces a very different contest to the two-horse race in 2001. The presence of a Greens candidate on the ballot paper this time can be expected to cost her. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain No doubt due to the sugar issue, the Nationals achieved one of their most encouraging outcomes in making Bundaberg almost marginal again with a 9.7 per cent two-party preferred swing. More importantly they managed a creditable 5.6 per cent lift in their primary vote despite the presence of a Green and an independent in what had been a two-horse field last time. Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results OUTCOME: Labor retain (5.3%) BUNDAMBA (Labor 30.9%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A 6 per cent swing against Labor has cost Bundamba its cherished safest-seat-in-Queensland status. It now sits in lowly fourth-place behind Labor-held Inala and Woodridge and independent Peter Wellington's seat of Nicklin. An Ipswich-area seat, this is the type of Labor territory that prefers One Nation to the Greens, who polled 11 and 6.8 per cent respectively. The Greens can't be too happy about this, having scored 13.4 per cent last time. OUTCOME: Labor retain (24.9%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BURDEKIN (Labor 5.1%)
In Burdekin if nowhere else, Waterloo beckons for Labor at the coming poll. Despite the solid 5.5 per cent two-party preferred margin the seat has no business being in Labor hands. Steve Rodgers ("Labor's quiet man", according to the Townsville Bulletin) won last time with 36.7 per cent of the primary vote, a feat made possible by exhausting National, One Nation and City-Country Alliance (Jeff Knuth) preferences. Rodgers appears to have struggled against influential local opposition in territory where the National Party has a finger in the pie of every local council and growers group. Labor is unlikely to have won too many friends in the area with its opportunism over ethanol at the federal level, and sugar deregulation should have the electorate keen to take a swing at any punching bag that happens to come along. Jeff Knuth is not taking his 2001 defeat lying down, hoping to use a new One Nation-lite outfit by the name of the New Country Party (pending a legal challenge by the Old Country Party over their right to use the name) as a vehicle for a comeback with support from Bob Katter. The National Party has preselected Rosemary Menkens, subject of a series of flattering letters to the Ayr Advocate from federal National MP and sometime (when convenient) loose cannon De-Anne Kelly. The Townsville Bulletin had earlier reported that Bill Micola, "champion of downtrodden sugarcane farmers", was the one to watch - providing he didn't instead decide to challenge Kelly in her seat of Dawson, which maybe he has. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The Poll Bludger's inkling that Labor would be punished in sugar growing territory was reinforced by reports early in the campaign of a bank's foreclosure on a huge farm in the Burdekin electorate, seen locally as a harbinger of a wave of further foreclosures that will devastate the local sugar industry in the coming months. Beattie's efforts to court environmental votes through his announcement on land clearing suggested a tactical decision to write off seats like Burdekin in order to shore up the vote in more decisive urban areas. There are other factors at work here against Labor - Antony Green and John Cherry both agree that the 5.1 per cent margin is a rosy assessment of Labor's position, due to the enormous amount of exhausted votes among the 63.3 per cent of the electorate who split their votes between the various conservative candidates in 2001. Against that is the fact that the candidates who damaged the Nationals last time, Jeff Knuth (former One Nation member now running as a Bob Katter-endorsed independent) and Merle Poletto (again running for One Nation), are both taking the field again and are likely to do quite well. There is also the matter of the polls. The first Newspoll of the campaign showed a 2 per cent increase for Labor outside Brisbane, and it has since been followed by an AEC Group survey commissioned by the Townsville Bulletin which provided very good news for Rodgers, despite its small sample size of 127 and a 31.5 per cent undecided rating that the pollsters could have made more effort to pare back a little. The raw results were Rodgers 40, a disheartening 17 for Menkens, Knuth on 12, Poletto 10, Rubenach 2 and 40 undecided. It's not much to go on, but it's emboldened the Poll Bludger to make the following brave call … ASSESSMENT: Labor retain I should have known that the Waterloo gag outlined above was too good not to be true. In a bitter and bloody primary vote battle, Rosemary "Wellington" Menkens held out long enough that the day could be decided with the arrival on the battlefield of Marshal Blucher's Prussians, a.k.a. Jeff Knuth's preferences (leaving aside the fact that he was cast as an agent of the French Revolution at the beginning of our story). By all rights a failure by Labor to win Burdekin should be taken for granted, so the real story here is that the sugar protest vote was successfully harnessed in this seat by the National Party, whose primary vote lifted by 12.7 per cent. By contrast Jeff Knuth's vote dropped 5.7 per cent to 15.2, while Merle Poletto fell from 19.7 to 9 per cent. OUTCOME: NATIONALS GAIN (4.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BURLEIGH (Labor 1.8%)
The seat has historically been National territory, but the Liberals made little secret that this and other seats in the Gold Coast area were in their sights before the Coalition agreement was reached - one can only speculate whether this was an ambit claim, but there is a perception that urbanisation is turning this area in a Liberal direction. Historical note: the One Nation candidate in 1998 was none other than Terry Sharples. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Another seat Senator John Cherry thinks will fall if the Nationals can pick up 5 per cent from the 17 per cent achieved by One Nation in 2001. Christine Smith made some interesting headlines early in the campaign with news her son Justin, in jail for a service station armed robbery, declined to apply for bail in order to spare his mother unwelcome publicity. Smith tells the Weekend Australian she is "preparing myself for an early retirement" but the Poll Bludger is not so sure. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Poll Bludger is still wondering who told Smith she was going to lose her bustling Gold Coast seat to the National Party. Despite a predictable One Nation collapse the Nationals' vote actually fell, while Smith picked up a handy 3 per cent. The remaining 8.6 per cent went to the Greens, who did not contest last time. OUTCOME: Labor retain (5.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results BURNETT (Labor 1.7%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: While the Coalition will be assisted in many seats by Greens stealing Labor votes and fewer conservative candidates dividing up their own, Rob Messenger will have to rely on his high profile and the forces of electoral correction to get him over the line. For the second election in a row, Burnett will be a two-horse race. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Mea culpa, Rob Messenger. That embarrassment aside, what a great pleasure it is to report on a seat that saw head-to-head two-candidate contests at successive elections. On this occasion the Nationals' vote went up 4.3 per cent on both primary and two-party preferred while Labor fell by 4.3 per cent on both primary and two-party preferred. The swing to the Nationals, on both primary and two-party preferred, was 4.3 per cent. Oh for the days when it was always this easy. Those wishing to get carried away about the sugar effect in light of the Nationals' success here might care to remember that this swing was not greatly out of proportion to other areas, despite its decisive effect. OUTCOME: NATIONALS GAIN (2.6%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CAIRNS (Labor 14.8%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The field here differed from last time only in that it was contested by a Liberal rather than a National, and the outcome will give the Liberals some ammo for future negotiations with their Coalition partners. The Liberals managed 38.8 per cent compared to the Nationals' 22.2 per cent last time, and while most of this came at the expense of One Nation they did manage to gouge a reasonable 5.8 per cent from Desley Boyle's inflated 2001 result while reducing her to an uncomfortable two-party preferred margin. OUTCOME: Labor retain (3.9%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CALLIDE (National 2.3% vs ONP)
ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain Too much of the total swing to the Coalition in this election was made up of outcomes like Callide, where the National Party picked up 20 per cent on both primary and two-party preferred in a seat where they should never have been troubled. The increase was achieved directly at the cost of One Nation's Jim Dwyer, whose second bash as One Nation candidate for Callide was not quite so successful as his first. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (23.6%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CALOUNDRA (Liberal 1.0%)
ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain Liberal nerves were frayed on election night by the specter of a humiliating defeat in one of their three remaining seats. It wasn't quite to be - McArdle ended up with a similarly slight primary vote lead to that of Joan Sheldon in 2001, with Labor and Liberal benefiting equally from One Nation's decline, but preferences from the Greens' 7.5 per cent share of the vote conspicuously failed to close the 1.7 per cent gap. OUTCOME: Liberal retain (1.3%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CAPALABA (Labor 14.6% vs IND)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain By hoovering up the votes that scattered among the numerous independent challengers in 2001, Michael Choi made amends for his indifferent performance at that election. His primary vote lifted a hearty 15.6 per cent, although the impact of this on his two-party preferred margin was surprisingly modest. OUTCOME: Labor retain (15.2%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CHARTERS TOWERS (Labor 2.2%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: John Cherry says this becomes "knife-edge" if the Nationals can pick up 5 per cent of One Nation's 21.6 per cent from 2001, but One Nation candidate Jerry "Smiley" Burnett appears to be a highly regarded local character and may staunch the flow to some extent. Interestingly, Scott is not buying any of her leader's rubbish about Labor's fragile position, telling the Northern Miner that "Peter Beattie will be the Premier of this state for a long, long time and the one thing the people of this region need more than anything else is a local MP who is part of his team". ASSESSMENT: Labor retain One of six official Poll Bludger wrong calls, Shane Knuth ended up winning by 2.7 per cent despite it being neck-and-neck at the close of count on election night. Burnett did not in fact perform any better than other One Nation candidates - in a clear example of the John Cherry effect in action, his vote fell 11.9 per cent while the National Party rose 12.2, translating into a 4.9 per cent swing against a Labor Party whose primary vote held its own. OUTCOME: NATIONALS GAIN (2.7%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CHATSWORTH (Labor 15.1%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The 8.3 per cent increase in the Liberal vote looks good on paper, but it was achieved in the absence of a One Nation candidate which put 11 per cent of the 2001 vote up for grabs. OUTCOME: Labor retain (11.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CLAYFIELD (Labor 2.0%)
For her part, Clark has proved no bleeding heart, leading the charge against a Brisbane Council-approved methadone clinic in Clayfield and Philip Ruddock's plans for a refugee detention centre at Pinkenba, also on her turf. On the other hand, she also gained publicity for her hostile reaction to the Jeanette Howard-organised "leaders' partners" activities at CHOGM, the content of which - a fashion parade and women's health forum - made unfashionable assumptions about said partners' gender, orientation and related personal identity issues. Some clever-dick at the ABC reported it was "unclear" whether Helen Clark's husband had accepted his invite. It's possible that Clark (Liddy that is) has built enough of a profile to hold off electoral gravity for one more election, but the Liberals would still be bitterly disappointed if this seat didn't return to the fold. Curiously, Sir Llew Edwards, the Joh loyalist whose loss of the Liberal leadership to Terry White initiated the 1983 Coalition meltdown, was threatened with explusion by the Liberal Party for hosting a fundraising cocktail party (reportedly at $100 a head) on Clark's behalf. Edwards had earlier done Labor a favour in 1991 when he called on the Criminal Justice Commission to lay off Goss government ministers brought to the brink of enforced resignation over minor travel rorts. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: A similar field to last time (Labor, Liberal, Independent and Green), and the Poll Bludger detects enough of a nudge away from Labor in Brisbane to make this a desperately needed gain for the Liberals. For what it's worth, the Greens are recommending preferences to Clark. ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN A dispiriting failure for the Liberal Party, who narrowed the primary vote gap from 3.7 to 0.1 per cent but were thwarted by a non-major candidate preference pool more heavily dominated by the Greens than in 2001. Also a dispiring failure for the Poll Bludger. OUTCOME: Labor retain (1.2%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CLEVELAND (Labor 16.7%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Greens' candidate didn't do nearly so well as independent John Barton in 2001, with the Liberals the beneficiaries of a 10 per cent primary vote increase that only took 3.6 per cent off the ALP. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.7%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results COOK (Labor 22.9% vs ONP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Although it should be noted here that Elmes made national headlines by describing his own party bosses as "a bunch of dickheads" while James O'Brien has been almost entirely silent, the Poll Bludger has said most of what he has to say about this seat in this posting. Victor Hart of QUT's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander studies unit has dropped a line to note that the ECQ conducts early polls in Torres Strait islands with "kindly missionary-like persons" flown in to show the locals how to vote, perhaps explaining the low informal vote. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Elmes came good on the Poll Bludger's predictions for him by exactly doubling the National Party's 2001 performance, while One Nation fell by three-quarters rather than the usual two-thirds. As always the seat produced a marvellously diverse range of booth results, although Labor failed to crack 90 per cent in any of the isolated Aboriginal communities on this occasion. This may have something to do with Bruce Gibson's effort in scoring 14.7 per cent of the vote. OUTCOME: Labor retain (7.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CUNNINGHAM (National 8.6%)
ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain Stuart Copeland enjoyed a not-too-shabby lift in his primary vote from 24.8 to 62.3 per cent, although he had Liberal, One Nation, the City-Country Alliance and a popular independent to contend with last time. This time there was just One Nation, who failed to crack 10 per cent. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (18.9%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results CURRUMBIN (Labor 14.5%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Some of the judgements above were looking in pretty good shape when the campaign began with Merri Rose's spectacular resignation from cabinet after the state workers' compensation body upheld a staffer's complaint of bullying against her. However, the Doug Shave parallel assumed a credible independent challenge, of which Shave faced two, with Liberals for Forests candidate Janet Woollard ultimately winning the seat. None of the field here seems to fit the bill, and in any event the feeling on the ground (in so far as the Poll Bluger can determine such a thing from Melbourne) is that Rose has retained a surprising level of popularity within her own electorate. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Maybe the defeat of Merri Rose shouldn't have been quite such a surprise, but published opinion polls are the best thing we get to go on in this business and the reputable Gold Coast Bulletin polling showed Rose in the clear (presumably party polling concurred because no-one anywhere was listing this as one to change hands). In the event her vote fell from 56.4 to 39.6 per cent, well behind the Liberals on 46 per cent in the seat where the Greens were most strident in their refusal to recommend preferences to Labor. OUTCOME: LIBERAL GAIN (3.2%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results DARLING DOWNS (Independent 1.1% vs NAT)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Hopper's win in 2001 and Chris Foley's Maryborough by-election victory last year show what a marvellous electoral asset losing a National Party preselection vote can be. Hopper however has since rejoined the National Party - we will now see if people were voting for him in 2001, or for the principle of independent representation. Kathy Sankey, a former staffer to federal National MP Bruce Scott, has been derided by Labor as a dummy candidate. Late in the campaign Bruce Chalmers received the Bob Katter seal of approval already given to David Moyle (Thuringowa), Jeff Knuth (Burdekin), Sandra Hubert (Mundingburra) and Andrew Lancini (Hinchinbrook). ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain Ray Hopper went untroubled here, winning on the primary vote. Chalmers did better than the One Nation candidate to make double figures. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (17.8%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results EVERTON (Labor 17.5%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberals can feel pleased at having lifted 7 per cent of the vote pretty much straight from Labor, but they can't honestly claim this as one of the seats mooted as within reach of victory next time. OUTCOME: Labor retain (11.6%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results FERNY GROVE (Labor 20.5%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Joined at the hip to Everton, Ferny Grove also saw 7 per cent of the major party vote change hands in Liberal's favour, without altering the seat's safe Labor status. The Greens' vote didn't budge much. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.2%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results FITZROY (Labor 17.2%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Pearce's bluster may have done the trick, as his primary vote held level against the regional trend. The National Party soaked up the 8.7 per cent City Country Alliance vote from 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (12.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GAVEN (Labor 7.6%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Robert Poole was reprimanded by Beattie for distributing a pamphlet portraying Stevens as a pig with his snout in the trough on the basis of actions as a Gold Coast City Councillor, contradicting the party's campaign strategy of scrupulously avoiding saying or doing anything the slightest bit interesting. This may cost him the odd vote here and there but it doesn't seem that a swing in the order of 7 per cent is on the cards anywhere on the Gold Coast. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain In this posting the Poll Bludger urged punters to keep an eye on the relative performance of Nationals and Liberal candidates contesting Gold Coast seats, with specific reference to Burleigh and Broadwater against Gaven and Mudgeeraba. The verdict is in: the National Party vote fell in the former while the Liberals picked up big swings in the latter. Ray Stevens' success was the less striking of the two (perhaps the piggie pamphlet wasn't such a bad idea after all) but he still did 5.3 per cent better than a sitting National Party MP in 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (5.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GLADSTONE (Independent 3.5% vs ALP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Nobody seems to be getting too excited about Gladstone and the Poll Bludger is not brave enough to defy the conventional wisdom to this degree. Nevertheless each of Cunningham's three wins have been narrow and there seems no reason to expect a hugely different result this time. Labor received a boost early in the campaign when Aldoga announced construction of a $2 billion aluminium smelter would begin in June. ASSESSMENT: Independent retain Fortunately my "fourth time may not be a charm" judgement was withdrawn in good time, because Cunningham enjoyed her easiest win to date with 55.3 per cent of the primary vote. In a stunning turnaround in Coalition fortunes the National Party vote rose from 2.3 to 7.4 per cent. Maybe Labor's 7.9 per cent dive has implications for their chances of picking up the key federal seat of Hinkler. Probably not though. OUTCOME: Independent retain (11.2% vs ALP) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GLASS HOUSE (Labor 9.6%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: John Cherry calculates a two-party preferred outcome of 5.9 per cent from 2001 if there had been no three-cornered contest. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain With four candidates this time compared with six last time, it was every-child-wins-a-prize night in Glass House - the Nationals could pat themselves on the back for having their primary vote go from 18.0 to 33.4 per cent (bearing in mind that a Liberal scored 10.7 per cent last time); Labor's 8 per cent improvement was pretty good for a government seeking a third term; and the Greens, in keeping with their performance overall, did very slightly better than last time. Every child that is except for two time One Nation candidate Santo Ferraro who like most of his party colleagues managed about two-fifths of what he scored last time. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.9%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GREENSLOPES (Labor 14.1%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Liberals could really have used a 3.5 per cent swing in Brisbane seats like Clayfield and Indooroopilly. Instead they got them in Sandgate and Greenslopes, where they can't seriously console themselves with the thought that they've put themselves within striking distance for next time. The Greens went backwards. OUTCOME: Labor retain (11.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GREGORY (National 9.3%)
ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain Labor came down to earth from 2001, a 10.4 per cent fall in their primary vote translating into a substantial two-party preferred swing to Vaughan Johnson. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (17.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results GYMPIE (One Nation 3.3% vs ALP)
In 2001 however, One Nation's Elisa Roberts succeeded where Petersen, standing this time with the City-Country Alliance, had failed at the party's high-water mark. Although the One Nation primary vote fell to 25.7 per cent, a quarter of Petersen's and a half of National candidate Stephen Duff's votes went to Roberts as preferences, overhauling Labor's 7.7 per cent lead on the primary vote. Roberts quit One Nation in April 2002 (it had ceased to be Pauline Hanson's One Nation two months earlier), reducing One Nation representation in the parliament to two. National Party candidate Dr Christian Rowan is a 30 year old Cooroy doctor described by Crikey as a "former aspirant for Fairfax preselection, Noosa preselection, Dickson preselection, and almost candidate for Ryan preselection". Crikey accused Rowan of participating in a branch stacking operation in aid of Bob Tucker's unsuccessful tilt at the 2001 Ryan preselection, part of a deal that would see Tucker support Rowan in the Ryan-area state seats of Indooroopilly or Moggill if Denver Beanland or David Watson vacated them post-defeat (a defeat which Tucker, then serving as "part-time" Liberal campaign director, was taking for granted). In the event Indooroopilly fell to Labor and Watson saw out his term (curiously, Rowan did not figure in the complicated tussle for the Moggill preselection ahead of the current election). It seems safe to assume that Gympie is not exactly Rowan's own backyard, and the Gympie Times reported a rift in Coalition ranks over his candidacy. Nevertheless he is now enthusiastically presenting himself to the local media as a fully-fledged born-again Gymp, appearing in the local media at least as often as Roberts, no shrinking violet herself. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Antony Green reports that Labor were "amazed" in 2001 when they came within a shot of winning Gympie for the same reasons that they won Burdekin - a low Labor primary vote, but even lower primary votes spread across a field of conservative candidates whose supporters failed to preference each other. With an equal danger of right-wing vote-splitting among this sprawling field Labor may again be rated an outside chance, but most likely it will be a contest between Roberts and Rowan, and the Poll Bludger's gut feeling is that Roberts will pip Rowan into second place and ride over Labor on preferences. As reported in the Gympie Times on January 28, Sachs has cut a preference deal with Bailey and curiously recommended a third preference to Rowan - understandably, Roberts is not pleased. Bailey is recommending a third preference to Roberts, while the Greens are recommending a second preference to Labor. ASSESSMENT: Independent retain The Poll Bludger twice predicted that Labor would lead on the primary vote but lose on preferences, but in the event Elisa Roberts outpolled Labor 33.4 to 25.7 per cent. Preferences from One Nation and independents helped Rowan overhaul Gate to take second place. OUTCOME: Independent retain (10.0% vs NAT) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results HERVEY BAY (Labor 7.6% vs ONP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Hervey Bay is another seat John Cherry says would have been won by either One Nation or City-Country Alliance in 2001 if they hadn't both been standing and if (a bigger if than Cherry lets on, to the Poll Bludger's mind) their supporters had uniformly lined up behind the remaining candidate. Antony Green calculates that this seat gave Labor its biggest free-kick from exhausted votes in the state, producing a theoretical 0.2 per cent margin if votes that exhausted are apportioned out in the same proportions as those that didn't. However another well-stocked field in an election that should more closely resemble a first-past-the-post contest than any Australian poll since the advent of preferential voting should favour McNamara in view of his 24.3 per cent primary vote lead in 2001, even if he does lose votes to the Greens' candidate. Former One Nation MP David Dalgleigh is running as an independent this time and with One Nation not fielding a candidate, he may grab a reasonable share of the combined One Nation-plus-CCA vote of 37 per cent from 2001 without depriving the Nationals of their own primary vote recovery. The other independent, Glen Poulton, is a truckie who says he's running to pressure the government into road transport reform. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The National Party doubled its primary vote, and so it should have given the combined One Nation and City-Country Alliance vote last time. However Labor also increased its vote and ended up suffering only a small swing. David Dalgleish could only manage 12.6 per cent. OUTCOME: Labor retain (4.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results HINCHINBROOK (National 2.8% vs ONP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Hinchinbrook Councillor Andrew Lancini, who polled 17.4 per cent as an independent last time and now carries the endorsement of the Bob Katter group, could be of interest in a sugar-area seat potentially ripe for another backlash against the major parties. ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain The score on the board suggests that Ron Boswell stood on firmer ground than Bob Katter during their election night run-in. Andrew Lancini was comfortably the best performer among the sugar independents and while his 21.4 per cent was a reasonably impressive showing, it was not hugely superior to what he managed without Katter's help last time. Lancini did manage to overhaul his 2.8 per cent deficit against Labor on One Nation preferences - there was once a time when he could then have hoped to overcome the Nationals on Labor preferences, which gives you some idea how well minor parties and independents are doing out of the new-look Queensland electoral system. OUTCOME: Nationals retain (10.9% vs IND) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results INALA (Labor 21.4% vs IND)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Henry Palaszczuk can consider himself the most popular man in Queensland politics, holding the state's only two-candidate preferred margin in excess of 30 per cent. His primary vote of 68.2 per cent was slightly below party colleague Desley Scott in Woodridge. OUTCOME: Labor retain (31.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results INDOOROOPILLY (Labor 2.9%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Like last time, this is a contest between Labor, Liberal, Greens and One Nation candidates. While one instinctively imagines that Labor's hold on an electorate as conservative as this one can only be an aberration, the Poll Bludger is not willing to put money on a 3 per cent swing to the Liberals in any Brisbane seat at this election. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Failure to recover Indooroopilly makes a mockery of any Liberal efforts to put a positive sheen on the overall result. Allan Pidgeon did manage to lift the Liberal primary vote by 5.8 per cent in a less crowded field, but nearly two-thirds of votes won by the strongly performing Greens (14.5 per cent against the 10.1 per cent achieved in 2001 by Drew Hutton, now running for both Brisbane Lord Mayor and the Senate) came Labor's way despite the party's refusal to recommend preferences. OUTCOME: Labor retain (2.1%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results IPSWICH (Labor 16.8% vs ONP)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Despite being a very different contest to the eight-candidate field of 2001, Rachel Nolan did outstandingly well to increase her vote by 14.4 per cent. The Liberals managed a semi-respectable performance this time, scoring 25.4 per cent to make second place. OUTCOME: Labor retain (21.0%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results IPSWICH WEST (Labor 7.3% vs ONP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Given that Jean Bray is an enormously popular and long-serving local mayor and Livingstone has enjoyed an inordinately long and not particularly productive career, it has been suggested this seat may be worth keeping a lazy eye on. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Certain Coalition commentators could be heard getting excited about Ipswich West early in the count, but in the event Livingstone was able to take a small bite out of the disappearing One Nation vote to secure another comfortable margin. However the Liberals can take solace that they did 12.5 per cent better here than the National Party could manage in 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (9.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results KALLANGUR (Labor 21.4%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain Of interest in that it was contested by a Nationals candidate this time and a Liberal last time. The Poll Bludger would like to be able to point to a poor Nationals performance as further evidence of the folly of allowing them to run in urban seats (outer urban in this case), but the Coalition vote in fact rose by 7.4 per cent. For this some blame can presumably be sheeted home to the bad publicity surrounding Ken Hayward as most of the Nationals' vote increase was directly at his expense, although similar circumstances in the similar seat of Kurwongbah produced a similar result. OUTCOME: Labor retain (13.7%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results KAWANA (Labor 2.6%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: One Nation polled 19 per cent in 2001, and John Cherry says the Liberals will win if they can pick up 5 per cent of that - presumably even less given that Cummins will be leaking votes to the Greens this time. It is therefore one of the Poll Bludger's bolder judgements that Labor are performing strongly enough in this area to hold back the tide. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain More agony for the Liberal Party, who managed only the smallest of swings in the marginal-but-not-that-marginal Labor seats of Indooroopilly, Clayfield and Kawana. Both major parties nudged upwards at One Nation's expense on the primary vote, but an extra 6.4 per cent from the Greens (who sat it out last time) produced a pinker preference pool than the one in play when One Nation alone took on Labor and Liberal in 2001. OUTCOME: Labor retain (1.5%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results KEPPEL (National 1.5%)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Potential defeat in this, one of only 11 seats the National Party held in 2001, marks a theoretically possible nightmare scenario for the Nationals. Long-serving local legend Vince Lester will take his personal vote with him into retirement, and Paul Hoolihan, the Labor candidate who came so close to seeing him off last time, is running again. Independents can find fertile ground in these circumstances but neither Bruce Piggott or John Murphy seems to be making much of a splash. Fisher however would appear to be putting in a strong personal performance. ASSESSMENT: LABOR GAIN With a 14 per cent City-Country Alliance vote scattering among poorly performing independent and minor party candidates, this appeared to be a simple case of 4 per cent of Vince Lester's personal vote marching straight to Labor, who also did slightly better from preferences than last time. OUTCOME: LABOR GAIN (3.8%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results KURWONGBAH (Labor 22.7%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain One of the Coalition's biggest swings, typically in a seat where the issue was never in doubt. The National Party would be very pleased at having done 10 per cent better here than the Liberals managed when they contested in 2001, while an 8.3 per cent fall in her vote would be a bit sobering for Linda Lavarch. But as far as the prospect of it changing hands at future elections goes, the seat remains of academic interest at best. OUTCOME: Labor retain (12.4%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results LOCKYER (One Nation 7.3% vs ALP)
CAMPAIGN UPDATE: Jamie Walker's feature article on the contest for Lockyer in the Weekend Australian painted a picture of ineffectual local campaigning ending any hope for Bill Flynn. The Poll Bludger doesn't doubt this much, but his implication of certain National Party victory needs examining given their pitiful 16.9 per cent primary vote last time. Certainly he can expect a substantial boost from the likely collapse of the vote for Flynn (28.3 per cent in 2001) and Peter Prenzler (18 per cent as sitting City-Country Alliance member last time, contesting as an independent this time), but it wouldn't take that many of these votes instead heading to Labor (27.5 per cent in 2001) to raise the outside chance of a freak upset. ASSESSMENT: NATIONALS GAIN Bill Flynn indeed ran a fairly distant third behind the Nationals and Labor, with the Nationals 3 per cent clear of Labor on the primary vote. Flynn's preferences only slightly widened the gap. OUTCOME: NATIONALS GAIN (4.1%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results LOGAN (Labor 22.3%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain A Greens candidate sapped 8.5 per cent of Mickel's primary vote but barely had an effect on his two-party preferred margin. OUTCOME: Labor retain (21.2%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results LYTTON (Labor 24.4%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The Greens went backwards while the Liberals lifted 7.1 per cent to return to 1998 levels. OUTCOME: Labor retain (17.8%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results MACKAY (Labor 13.5%)
ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The fact that One Nation ran a candidate in a seat they left for the City-Country Alliance in 2001 provides little excuse for the National Party going backwards in a "sugar seat" with no independent contestant. OUTCOME: Labor retain (15.8%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results MANSFIELD (Labor 8.6%)
* Stated with full consciousness of the hairs that may be split over these assertions. ASSESSMENT: Labor retain The failure of the Liberals to make any headway in this bellwether Brisbane electorate reiterates what a poor show the election was for them specifically and the Coalition in general. Their 3.8 per cent primary vote improvement came off the vote of a strongly performing independent from 2001 and had no impact on the two-party preferred outcome. OUTCOME: Labor retain (8.6%) Click here for Electoral Commission of Queensland results MAROOCHYDORE (National 0.8%)
The party website provides the fascinating revelation that Simpson is a singer/songwriter who recorded an album before entering parliament, which managed to escape the attention of the Poll Bludger despite his other gig as a music critic. No amount of Googling would turn up further information on this item. Taking the field against Simpson are Labor's Debbie Blumel and wheelchair-bound disabled rights advocate Anita Gordon, whose main beef appears to be pedestrian safety on David Low Way in Marcoola. CAMPAIGN UPDATE: The apparent failure of the Nationals' campaign to make any headway combined with this electorate's increasingly urban orientation mean that a Labor win here can't be written off. ASSESSMENT: Nationals retain Whereas Simpson had to rely on One Nation preferences to overhaul a Labor primary vote lead in 2001, a 6.2 per cent improvement against a 3.3 per cent dip for Labor put her well in the clear on this occasion. One Nation suffered a worse than u |