THE POLL BLUDGER
Northern Territory Election 2008

CLICK ON ELECTORATE NAME BELOW FOR FULL PROFILE
Region Labor seats Non-Labor seats Region
Palmerston (0.6) BRENNAN GREATOREX (0.4) Alice Springs
Inner Darwin (1.9) PORT DARWIN DRYSDALE (0.5)* Palmerston
Northern Suburbs (10.0) SANDERSON GOYDER (0.5)* Darwin Outskirts
Inner Darwin (11.5) FONG LIM KATHERINE (2.7) Katherine
Inner Darwin (15.7) FANNIE BAY BLAIN (5.7) Palmerston
Northern Suburbs (15.7) NIGHTCLIFF ARALUEN (7.5) Alice Springs
Darwin Outskirts (15.8) DALY BRAITLING (8.0) 1 Alice Springs
Northern Suburbs (16.0) KARAMA NELSON (9.8) 2 Outer Darwin
Central Australia (16.5) MACDONNELL
Northern Suburbs (16.8) JOHNSTON
Northern Suburbs (18.3) CASUARINA
Central Australia (18.9) STUART
Northern Suburbs (20.8) WANGURI
Top End (21.3) ARNHEM
Top End (23.6) ARAFURA
Outback (24.2) BARKLY
Top End (25.5) NHULUNBUY

Key - Australian Labor Party Country Liberal Party Independent
* Seat's party affiliation has changed following redistribution
1 Won at 2005 election by independent Loraine Braham with 0.8 per cent margin versus CLP
2 Won at 2005 election by independent Gerry Wood with 16.2 per cent margin versus CLP
Region classifications and margin estimates are derived from those used in Antony Green's election guide at ABC Elections.


ARAFURA
Labor 23.6%


RegionTop End
CandidatesTristan Mungatopi (CLP)
Marion Scrymgour (Labor)
Jone Lotu (Independent)
Angie Seibert (CLP)
Arafura includes Bathurst and Melville islands plus mainland territory to the east of Darwin, and has not been changed by the redistribution. Bob Collins, who served as Opposition Leader from 1981 to 1987, was member from its creation in 1983 until he moved to the Senate in 1987, having been member for Arnhem beforehand. He has been succeeded by three Tiwi islanders, the first two being Stan Tipiloura who died in 1992 and Australian rules legend Maurice Rioli. Former Katherine West Health Board director Marion Scrymgour came to the seat when Rioli retired in 2001, becoming Environment and Heritage Minister in the newly elected Martin government and further gaining family and community services in December 2003. Scrymgour made national headlines a month before the November 24 federal election with a blistering attack on the Howard government's intervention into Aboriginal communities, described as “the black kids' Tampa ” and “a vicious new McCarthyism”. Martin's apparent endorsement of Scrymgour's comments did not sit comfortably with her initial welcoming of the federal government's “swift reaction” to the “most serious issue”. Nicholas Rothwell of The Australian argued Martin was providing “wide latitude” for Scrymgour's “leftist critiques” as she needed to stay on side with Aboriginal members who had been considering using their numbers to topple her. However, Scrymgour's comments were criticised by one such MP, Alison Anderson from Macdonnell, who complained of “motherhood statements from urbanised saviours”. Scrymgour succeeded Paul Henderson as Deputy Chief Minister when Clare Martin departed on the Monday after the federal election, the highest rank ever attained by an Aborigine in an Australian government. The resulting cabinet reshuffle gave her indigenous affairs, education, child protection and community services, with Anderson as her parliamentary secretary for indigenous affairs.

The Northern Territory is the last remaining jurisdiction where conservatives maintain their old custom of giving voters more than one endorsed candidate to choose from. Their nomination of Angie Seibert and Tristan Mungatopi in Arafura typifies the strategy, with Seibert to campaign in West Arnhem while Mungatopi covers the Tiwi Islands.



ARALUEN
Country Liberal 7.5%


RegionAlice Springs
CandidatesLinda Chellew (Greens)
Jodeen Carney (CLP)
John Gaynor (Labor)
Araluen takes in the south-western corner of Alice Springs and the hinterland beyond, the latter area having increased with the redistribution. It has been a Country Liberal Party seat since its creation in 1983, being held by Eric Poole from 1986 until 2001 and Jodeen Carney thereafter. Carney was preselected after the branch's original nominee, Peter Harvey, was overruled by what the Alice Springs News described as “Denis Burke supporters in the party's central council”. Carney narrowly held the seat in the face of two strong independent challengers (including Tony Bohning, whose CLP preselection win in Macdonnell was also overturned by the central council, and who directed preferences to Labor) and a 17.2 per cent two-party swing to Labor. Carney emerged from the rubble of the Burke government defeat as Shadow Tourism Minister, but her rocky relationship with the local party branch worsened when she doomed Terry Mills' first coup attempt in June 2003 by siding with Burke. “CLP insiders” quoted by the Alice Springs News said she had assured her “Alice Springs backers” she would support Mills, and her failure to do so had put her preselection in doubt. There were reports that some in the party felt Carney supported Burke as repayment for his role in installing her in place of Harvey, and that Burke had also won her over with the promise of the deputy leadership. She in fact failed to win the position when Mike Reed retired the following September, instead receiving the consolation prize of promotion to Shadow Attorney-General. Carney's defection to the Mills camp was the decisive factor in his defeat of Burke in the spill held on 11 November 2003, and followed her vocal opposition to Burke's refusal to allow a conscience vote on lowering the age of consent for gay males (described by the then CLP member for Solomon, David Tollner, as “rent boy legislation”). Her responsibilities were further expanded when she was given the health portfolio in October 2004.

Carney picked up a 5.1 per cent swing at the 2005 election, in striking contrast to the party's performance elsewhere which left it with four members and no leader. She emerged as the new leader without contest, with Terry Mills still wounded from his short-lived first attempt, Richard Lim not interested and soon to resign, and inexperienced Katherine MP Fay Miller declaring herself wary even to take the deputy role. Proclaiming herself a “political cleanskin” who would pursue a “softer line” for the party, Carney's style might not have been what the CLP faithful had in mind, with many regarding David Tollner's defeat in Solomon as an opportunity to draft him to the leadership (he will run at the election in the new seat of Fong Lim). Mills ultimately came round to the idea of taking the helm again, and was able to win support from Fay Miller. When it became apparent that Mills' leadership pitch would result in a two-all deadlock (Carney maintained the support of Greatorex MP Matt Conlan, who had replaced Lim at a by-election in July 2007), Carney agreed to fall on her sword to avoid a repeat of the “farcial situation” that had recently bedevilled the Queensland Liberal Party. However, she maintained that she still considered herself the best person available for the job.

Labor has again nominated its candidate from 2005, Office of Central Australia adviser John Gaynor.



ARNHEM
Labor 21.3%


Sitting member elected unopposed
RegionTop End
CandidatesMalarndirri McCarthy (Labor)
Arnhem is one of two electorates where sitting Labor members have been elected unopposed, along with Macdonnell. It includes Groote Eylandt and a thinly populated area of eastern Arnhem Land. A Labor seat since 1977, it was held by John Ah Kit from 1995 until he retired in 2005. He was succeeded by indigenous ABC newsreader Barbara McCarthy (who now identifies herself as Malarndirri McCarthy), who had also been approached to stand for the CLP. McCarthy did well to add 11.5 per cent to the Labor primary vote in the face of the loss of Ah Kit's personal vote. Her most high-profile moment during her first term came in May 2007 when she crossed the floor to oppose legislation allowing Xstrata to expand its McArthur River mine.



BARKLY
Labor 24.2%


RegionOutback
Outgoing MemberElliot McAdam (Labor)
CandidatesGerry McCarthy (CLP)
Barry Lee Nattrass (Independent)
Randall Gould (Independent)
Mick Adams (Labor)
Barkly covers Tennant Creek and the surrounding area including the coastline immediately west of the Queensland border. The seat has an interesting history, having been home to former Chief Minister Ian Tuxworth from its creation in 1983 until 1990. Tuxworth reacted to his dumping from the CLP leadership in 1986 by enlisting with the Joh for PM push, forming a local branch of the National Party and holding his seat as its candidate in 1987 by 19 votes. The result was later annulled and the narrowly defeated independent candidate, Maggie Hickey, stood for Labor at the ensuing supplementary election. Tuxworth prevailed again, but Labor-voting Aboriginal communities were then added to the seat in a redistribution that some considered highly suspect. He instead made an unsuccessful attempt to win Goyder at the 1990 election, and Hickey won Barkly for Labor. Hickey remained member until 2001 and served as Opposition Leader from 1996 until she stood aside in 1999. Elliot McAdam comfortably retained the seat for Labor at the 2001 election despite a campaign incident in which he was thrown out of a Tennant Creek hotel for being drunk and abusive. When Clare Martin increased the cabinet from seven to nine after the 2005 election, McAdam was brought in as Local Government Minister. He would eventually resign in February 2008 when Paul Henderson insisted on watering down his proposed council reforms, and announced in June that he would not contest the election – a move which won much admiration, as it meant forfeiting almost $1 million in superannuation which awaited him if he served a third term. Labor's new candidate is local teacher Gerry McCarthy.



BLAIN
Country Liberal 5.7%


RegionPalmerston
CandidatesTerry Mills (CLP)
Ken Vowles (Labor)
Covering the south-east of Palmerston, Blain remains a safe CLP seat even after the 2005 election disaster (when it swung 9.7 per cent) and the recent redistribution, which by Antony Green's reckoning cut the margin 1.5 per cent by adding areas from Brennan and Drysdale. It was won upon its creation in 1997 by Barry Coulter, member for the abolished Palmerston since 1983, with 73.8 per cent of the vote. Coulter retired mid-term and CLP candidate Terry Mills came alarmingly close to losing to Labor at the ensuing by-election, held on 31 July 1999. Mills suffered no such troubles at ensuing elections, and won promotion to Shadow Education Minister when Denis Burke's government was defeated in 2001. He soon emerged as a leadership rival to Burke, launching an unsuccessful challenge in June 2003 which failed largely on account of Jodeen Carney's late decision to side with Burke. Opposition to Burke solidified when he refused to allow a conscience vote on a bill to lower the age of consent for gay males to 16, costing him the support of Carney and Katherine MP Fay Miller, and Mills defeated him six votes to four at a spill in November 2003. However, Mills quickly crashed and burned in the leadership role, suffering from poor performances in parliament and on television. Burke was returned unopposed in February 2005 when Mills stood aside, saying he lacked the experience to win and “wasn't up to the job”. He was accordingly happy for Jodeen Carney to take the reins following the 2005 election, but evidently built more confidence over the next two years. Having won the backing of Fay Miller for a leadership change, he persuaded Carney to stand aside to avoid a two-all deadlock, with Carney maintaining the support of recently elected Greatorex MP Matt Conlan.

Labor candidate Ken Vowles is a former captain of the Northern Territory cricket team, who said he was “seriously considering” running as an independent in Nightcliff before the 2005 election.



BRAITLING
Independent 0.8% vs CLP


RegionAlice Springs
Outgoing MemberLoraine Braham (Independent)
CandidatesAaron Dick (Labor)
Adam Giles (CLP)
Eli Melky (Independent)
Jane Clark (Greens)
Braitling covers the north-western suburbs of Alice Springs and has been a conservative seat since it was created in 1983. Loraine Braham is retiring at the coming election after holding the seat since 1994, as a CLP member until February 2001 and an independent thereafter. The split followed a decision by the CLP's central council to overturn her preselection win and install local businessman Peter Harvey. Braham held the seat on Labor preferences, trailing Harvey 39.6 per cent to 34.0 per cent on the primary vote but ultimately prevailing with a 5.5 per cent margin on Labor preferences. The new Labor government restored Braham to her earlier position as Speaker, which added a small amount of breathing space to its majority on the floor. She faced a strong challenge at the 2005 election from the CLP candidate, Alice Springs Town Council alderman Michael Jones, but survived with her margin cut from 5.5 per cent to 0.9 per cent. Braham has endorsed a new independent candidate, Eli Melky, who operates the local Golden Home Real Estate and Home Loan business. The Northern Territory News reports Melky is “believed to have joined the CLP to run as their candidate”, but quit after failing to win preselection. The nomination has instead gone to an indigenous man – Adam Giles, Federal Employment and Workplace Relations Department employee and the party's candidate for Lingiari at the 2007 federal election.



BRENNAN
Labor 0.6%


RegionPalmerston
CandidatesJames Burke (Labor)
Peter Chandler (CLP)
The most astounding result of the remarkable 2005 election was Denis Burke's 137-vote defeat in the Palmerston seat of Brennan on the back of a 20.9 per cent swing, which mostly resulted from a straightforward exchange of primary votes: the unheralded James Burke, an officer for the Liquor Hospitality and Miscellaneous Workers Union, boosted Labor's vote 21.8 per cent, while his CLP namesake was down 19.4 per cent (some in the CLP suggested that the former Burke benefited from name confusion). Brennan was created at the 1990 election and won for the CLP by Max Ortmann, defeating party colleague Col Firmin first for preselection and then when Firmin ran against him as an independent. Ortmann, who is remembered for wrapping a microphone cord around an ABC reporter's neck, would in turn lose preselection to Denis Burke in 1994, and he too attempted unsuccessfully to retain the seat as an independent. Antony Green calculates that the recent redistribution has sliced 1.2 per cent from the Labor margin, “depending on how booths are split in the re-arrangement of Palmerston boundaries”. The CLP has nominated Peter Chandler, regulatory services manager at Palmerston City Council.



CASUARINA
Labor 18.3%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesKon Vatskalis (Labor)
Gary Haslett (CLP)
The Darwin seat of Casuarina has existed since the parliament was established in 1974, being held for the first 20 years by Nick Dondas of the CLP. Dondas would go on to hold the federal seat of Northern Territory for one term following the 1996 election, and ran as an independent against CLP incumbent Sue Carter in Port Darwin in 2001. His departure from Casuarina produced a contest at the 1994 election between television newsreader Peter Adamson of the CLP and ABC Radio presenter Clare Martin of Labor. Adamson prevailed and Martin went on to become member for Fannie Bay in 1997, and eventually Chief Minister. After serving as a minister in the Shane Stone and Denis Burke governments, Adamson suffered a narrow defeat at the hands of Labor's Kon Vatskalis in 2001. He went on to become Lord Mayor of Darwin, standing aside in May 2007 after being charged over misuse of council funds, for which he was later convicted and jailed. Greek-born Vatskalis has held numerous portfolios in his two terms as a minister, currently maintaining the workload of business and economic development, tourism, housing, Asian relations, regional development, defence support and essential services. He was said to be sufficiently nervous about his seat before the last election that he was eyeing off Barkly, but a 15.5 per cent swing in his favour has presumably set his mind to rest. The CLP's candidate this time is Gary Haslett, described by the Northern Territory News as a “media consultant”. Haslett ran as an independent in Sanderson in 2001, polling 11.0 per cent.



DALY
Labor 15.8%


RegionDarwin Outskirts
CandidatesDavid Pollock (Greens)
Wayne Connop (CLP)
August Stevens (Independent)
Rob Knight (Labor)
In the face of some very stiff competition, the pastoral and outer urban electorate of Daly provided Labor with its best result of the 2005 election, the retirement of sitting CLP member Tim Baldwin contributing to a barely believable 24.3 per cent swing. The CLP primary vote collapsed from 57.2 per cent to 28.0 per cent, while an 18.8 per cent increase for two-time Labor candidate Rob Knight meant he did not even have to go to preferences. Knight had previously been a federal public servant and reportedly won preselection with the support of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association. Daly's predecessor seat Victoria River (the name change coming when the station of that name was removed from the electorate in 2001) had been won once previously for Labor in 1980, when sitting member Terry McCarthy jumped ship to Goyder, but the seat had otherwise been held by the CLP at all times. The latest redistribution has drawn the electorate towards Darwin, adding the Berry Springs area and the Cox Peninsula on the southern side of Darwin Harbour from Goyder, and removing its area to the east around Katherine, which it surrounded but did not include. Antony Green estimates this has added 1.0 per cent to the Labor margin. The CLP has enlisted a defector in Darwin lawyer and rugby coach Wayne Connop: he was Labor's candidate for Goyder in 1997 and appeared on the party's Senate ticket in 2004, as well as standing for preselection in Solomon before the 2007 election.



DRYSDALE
Country Liberal 0.5%*


RegionPalmerston
CandidatesJustin Tutty (Independent)
Chris Natt (Labor)
Ross Bohlin (CLP)
One of Labor's most remarkable gains of the 2005 election was Drysdale, where Chris Natt defeated sitting CLP member Stephen Dunham by 1.6 per cent after a 17.7 per cent swing. Natt is a former football administrator who played 216 games for Port Adelaide in the SANFL between 1972 and 1983. He was brought into cabinet in September 2006 with the retirement of Peter Toyne, becoming Primary Industries, Mines and Fisheries Minister. Drysdale replaced the abolished seat of Leanyer in 1997 and was again substantially redrawn in redistributions before the 2001 and 2005 elections to account for ongoing rapid growth. At the 2005 election Drysdale covered outskirts of both Darwin and Palmerston, but the redistribution has transferred the former area to newly created Fong Lim, notionally nudging Drysdale back to the CLP column. Antony Green speculated that this might produce a showdown for the more attractive prospect of Fong Lim between Natt and Matthew Bonson, member for the abolished neighbouring seat of of Millner. However, Bonson was apparently endorsed for Fong Lim without controversy. The CLP has nominated police officer Ross Bohlin.



FANNIE BAY
Labor 15.7%


RegionInner Darwin
Outgoing MemberClare Martin (Labor)
CandidatesMichael Gunner (Labor)
Garry Lambert (CLP)
Fannie Bay has existed since the parliament was established in 1974 and was originally held for the CLP by Grant Tambling, who would later serve one term in the House of Representatives and several in the Senate. Labor held the seat for a term after 1977 before it was recovered for the CLP in 1980 by Marshall Perron, member for Stuart Park from 1974. Perron went on to serve as Chief Minister from 1988 until his retirement in 1995. Clare Martin won the ensuing by-election after falling short in her bid to win Casuarina at the 1994 election, becoming party leader in 1999 and Chief Minister in 2001. Her 8.5 per cent swing in 2005 boosted the margin to 18.3 per cent, but Antony Green calculates the redistribution has brought this down slightly through a swap of territory with Port Darwin and the transfer of The Narrows to the new seat of Fong Lim. Martin is now retiring after stepping aside as leader two days after the November 24 federal election, a decision generally seen to have been compelled by a loss of support from Aboriginal MPs which was intensified by the federal government intervention into remote communities. A year earlier it had been reported that 10 of the 19 caucus members were ready to back Paul Henderson in a leadership challenge, but Martin was able to temporarily recover conditional support from disaffected Aboriginal members.

Labor's new candidate is Michael Gunner, chief-of-staff to Local Government Minister Rob Knight, described by a source quoted in the Northern Territory News as “from the Right, but he's well liked on the Left”. The source also spoke of “internal party polling” (something Territory parties have not generally been known to conduct, although it may have been conducted in tandem with pre-election federal polling) which had Labor feeling very confident. The CLP candidate is Garry Lambert, who served as lord mayor of Darwin for nine months after Peter Adamson resigned in disgrace in July 2007, in what he described as a “caretaker” capacity. Lambert announced his candidacy on radio in what the Northern Territory News described as “a fantastic performance, akin to Gordon Ramsay without the swearing”, in which he “managed in two minutes flat to foreshadow a leadership challenge, ridicule fellow star recruit Dave Tollner and go against his CLP leader's policy”. There was much speculation that Tollner might nominate for the seat in the wake of his defeat in Solomon at the federal election, but he will instead run in Fong Lim.



FONG LIM
Labor 11.5%


New electorate
RegionOuter Darwin
CandidatesMatthew Bonson (Labor)
David Tollner (CLP)
The new electorate of Fong Lim replaces abolished Millner, the suburb of that name being transferred to Johnston. Fong Lim awkwardly extends from the central Darwin suburbs of Ludmilla and The Narrows eastwards across the airport and East Arm to the edge of Palmerston. Antony Green estimates the Labor margin at 11.5 per cent, compared with 17.8 per cent in Millner at the 2005 election. The CLP's prospects have been boosted by the nomination of David Tollner, member for the Darwin-based federal seat of Solomon from its creation in 2001 until his narrow defeat at the November 24 election. Tollner's first brush with Territory politics came in 1997 when he fell 41 votes short of winning Nelson as an independent, after running in opposition to gun control. Two significant figures in the CLP cited Tollner's Solomon preselection as a factor contributing to their resignation from the party: Nick Dondas, veteran member for Casuarina and member for the federal Northern Territory electorate from 1996 to 1998, and multiple election candidate Maisie Austin, who ran against Tollner as an independent in 2001 before later returning to the party fold. Tollner is thought likely to assume the party leadership if elected.

Millner was one of the five seats Labor won in 1977 after striking out altogether at the first Assembly election in 1974. One-time Labor leader Terry Smith was member from 1983 until his retirement in 1991, when future Darwin legal academic and Club Troppo blogger Ken Parish carried it for Labor at a by-election. Parish was unseated by Phil Mitchell of the CLP at the 1994 election despite an overall swing to Labor, a result widely credited to late-campaign push-polling targeting every household in the electorate. Mitchell held the seat until 2001 when preferences delivered an 82-vote win to Labor's Matthew Bonson, a lawyer and local sporting identity of varied but mostly indigenous heritage, in a result that secured Labor its one-seat majority.

Bonson quickly emerged as one of the government's more colourful figures. In February 2002 he was suspended for two weeks by the Northern Territory Football League after urinating during a reserves match – “behind the bushes”, according to a government spokesman quoted by AAP, but “along the boundary line” according to the Northern Territory News. Two months later he was the subject of a police investigation over a brawl with a basketball teammate that left him with a black eye, leading Clare Martin to ban him from playing sport. In the wake of child sex abuse allegations at Mutitjulu in June 2006, a leaked memo showed Bonson telling other indigenous members that Martin should abandon her indigenous affairs portfolio due to the “level of misunderstanding and even hate” towards her among community leaders. He was subsequently forced to retract and apologise, though many felt he was vindicated when the government was sidelined by the federal intervention into Aboriginal communities. Bonson realised a long-desired cabinet position as Sport and Recreation Minister following Martin's resignation in November 2007.



GOYDER
Country Liberal 0.5%*


RegionDarwin Outskirts
CandidatesTed Warren (Labor)
Kezia Purick (CLP)
Goyder has been significantly altered by the redistribution: where previously it occupied the entire area beyond the limits of Darwin, from Cox Peninsula in the south to Gunn Point in the north, it is now concentrated on the semi-rural area around Humpty Doo 40 kilometres to the south-east. Antony Green estimates that this has shifted the seat from the Labor to the CLP column, with a notional 0.5 per cent margin compared with Labor's 1.6 per cent in 2005. Goyder had previously been held by the CLP since its creation at the 1990 election, when Terry McCarthy moved to the seat from Victoria River (now called Daly). McCarthy was opposed on that occasion by Ian Tuxworth, the former Chief Minister who won Barkly as a Joh-boosting National Party candidate in 1987 after the CLP dumped him as leader. Peter Maley replaced McCarthy on his retirement at the 2001 election, winning immediate promotion to Shadow Attorney-General and soon emerging as a leadership rival to Denis Burke. The job instead went to Terry Mills when Burke was deposed in 2003, from which point things quickly went awry for Maley. After enduring controversies involving overseas junkets, conflicts of interest and a disappearance from his post while he attended an interestate polocross tournament, he was dumped from the front-bench in April 2004 and subsequently quit the CLP and announced he was not standing for re-election.

The seat emerged as one of a number of shock wins for Labor in 2005, when Ted Warren emerged the beneficiary of a 16.4 per cent swing and a 21.4 per cent plunge in the CLP primary vote. It was more widely anticipated that the CLP might be vulnerable to independent candidate and Litchfield shire president Mary Walshe, but she managed only 13.8 per cent. This time the CLP has nominated Kezia Purick, daughter of long-serving Nelson MP Noel Padgham-Purich and until recently chief executive of the Northern Territory Minerals Council. Purick was defeated for preselection at the 2005 election because, according to a party source quoted by the Northern Territory News, there were “too many women in the Territory parliament already”, with Purick being especially unsuitable as she was “not married and had no children”.



GREATOREX
Country Liberal 0.4%


RegionAlice Springs
CandidatesJenny Aronsten (Greens)
Matt Conlan (CLP)
Jo Nixon (Labor)
Greatorex covers the eastern side of Alice Springs, and was named Sadadeen until 1990. It was held for the CLP from 1980 to 1986 by Dennis Collins, who then retained it as an independent after losing preselection to future Chief Minister and Liberal federal president Shane Stone. Antony Green described Collins as “one of Australia's great conspiracy theorists, a proponent of burying guns in the desert in case the Fabian Socialist World Bank conspiracy turned out to be true” (which in fairness hasn't yet been proved not to be). Collins eventually lost the seat in 1994 to Richard Lim, who had risen to the position of Education Minister by the time of the CLP's 2001 election defeat. In September 2003 he became the party's deputy leader, but did not press a claim for the leadership when he emerged as one of only four CLP survivors from the 2005 election. Lim had suffered a 7.5 per cent swing to emerge with a margin of 1.5 per cent, having faced a concerted challenge from Labor's Fran Kilgariff, mayor of Alice Springs and daughter of CLP founding father Bernie Kilgariff. Lim announced his retirement in the middle of 2007, prompting a by-election on July 28. The CLP nominated local radio host Matt Conlan, who easily retained the seat with 53.6 per cent of the primary vote (up 5.0 per cent from Lim's vote in 2005). Labor's vote plunged from 40.8 per cent to 16.4 per cent, their candidate finishing third behind independent Paul Herrick on 24.0 per cent. Conlan stood by Jodeen Carney as Terry Mills prepared a move against her leadership, but Carney agreed to go to avert a two-all deadlock when Mills enlisted the support of Katherine MP Fay Miller (who is retiring at the coming election). Labor has again nominated its unsuccessful candidate from the by-election, audiologist Jo Nixon.



JOHNSTON
Labor 16.8%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesChris Burns (Labor)
Jo Sangster (CLP)
The northern suburbs seat of Johnston has been significantly redrawn by the redistribution, taking nearly 40 per cent of its voters from abolished Millner to the west. It was created in 2001 in place of Jingili, which had existed since the Assembly's creation in 1974. Jingili was held for the first 10 years by Paul Everingham, the Northern Territory's first Chief Minister and a future member of the House of Representatives. Steve Balch became member in 1997 but Labor won the renamed seat for the first time as part of its decisive sweep of the northern suburbs in 2001. Victorious candidate Chris Burns was awarded with the tourism and emergency services portfolios and was given an expanded role in the December 2003 reshuffle, with portfolios including transport and infrastructure, lands and planning and parks and wildlife. Burns's 9.2 per cent swing at the 2005 election was relatively modest by the standards of the Darwin area, but nonetheless enough to push Johnston well into the safe seat zone. He has continued to advance in the second term, trading transport for health when Peter Toyne retired in September 2006 and further becoming Attorney-General in the reshuffle which followed the departure of Clare Martin and deputy leader Syd Stirling in November 2007. The CLP candidate is Darwin deputy mayor Jo Sangster, who stood for the Democrats in Jingili in 2001. Sangster originally sought preselection for Sanderson, but was defeated by policeman Peter Styles.



KARAMA
Labor 16.0%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesDelia Lawrie (Labor)
Dorothy Fox (Independent)
Natalie Hunter (Independent)
Tony Bacus (CLP)
The northern Darwin seat of Karama was held from its creation in 1987 until 2001 by the CLP's Mick Palmer, who had previously been member for abolished Leanyer from 1983. Palmer held on grimly in 1994 and 1997 before being swept out by the northern suburbs tide that delivered victory to Labor in 2001. The winner was Delia Lawrie, whose mother Dawn Lawrie was a long-serving independent member in the 1970s. They are apparently the only mother and daughter to have both been elected to parliament in Australian history. Lawrie was returned at the 2005 election with a 13.3 per cent swing, and then promoted to cabinet in the sport and recreation and family and community services portfolios. She has been promoted twice since, first to Transport and Infrastructure Minister in the September 2006 reshuffle that followed Peter Toyne's retirement, and then to Treasurer and Planning Minister when Clare Martin and Syd Stirling departed in November 2007. On the latter occasion she also planned to stand for the deputy leadership, but Nick Calacouras of the Northern Territory News reports she was persuaded to settle for leader of government business so the job could go to Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour.



KATHERINE
Country Liberal 2.7%


RegionKatherine
Outgoing MemberFay Miller (CLP)
CandidatesToni Tapp Coutts (Independent)
Sharon Hillen (Labor)
Willem Westra van Holthe (CLP)
This electorate includes most of the town of Katherine along with the Tindall air base, with the redistribution adding substantial areas of lightly populated territory to the south, west and east with little impact on the margin. Mike Reed was member from the seat's creation in 1987, and had risen to the deputy leadership when the CLP was dumped from power in 2001. His retirement precipitated a by-election on 4 October 2003 at which CLP candidate Fay Miller held on despite a 10.2 per cent swing to Labor. Miller emerged as an important ally of Terry Mills, providing decisive support for his moves on the leadership in November 2004 and February 2008. She managed to hold out against the 2005 landslide with only a slight reduction in her primary vote and a 1.3 per cent two-party swing against the by-election. In April this year, Miller announced she would not contest the election as she had not fully recovered from a car accident in March 2006 which left her needing spinal surgery and extended physiotherapy. Nick Calacouras of the Northern Territory News quoted a “CLP source” saying Miller had done “tremendously well” in local polling the party conducted during the federal election campaign. Her initial replacement for the CLP nomination was Teresa Cummings, but she immediately ran into trouble over claims she bullied staff while working for the Territory Business Centre. Cummings stood down as candidate the day after the election was announced and was swiftly replaced by police sergeant Willem Westra van Holthe. Labor has again nominated its candidate from both the 2003 by-election and 2005 general election, Katherine Town Council official Sharon Hillen. Also in the field is Katherine councillor and independent candidate Toni Tapp Coutts, whom the Northern Territory News reports will “probably give her preferences to Labor”.



MACDONNELL
Labor 16.5%


Sitting member elected unopposed
RegionCentral Australia
CandidatesAlison Anderson (Labor)
Macdonnell is one of two seats where sitting Labor members have been re-elected unopposed, the other being Arnhem. One of the original seats from 1974, it was held by Labor from 1977 until 1997 when it was lost upon the retirement of Neil Bell, member since 1981. The result was influenced by preferences from independent candidate Ken Lechleitner, who had directed preferences to the CLP after being defeated for Labor preselection. New member John Elferink did very well to retain the seat in the face of the 2001 election defeat, with Antony Green calculating the redistribution had turned it into a notional Labor seat. However, he was not spared the lash in 2005, when Macdonnell was one of four seats to deliver Labor swings in excess of 20 per cent (Elferink has returned for the coming election as candidate for Port Darwin). The winning candidate was Alison Anderson, a former Northern Territory Central ATSIC commissioner. Anderson came to national attention shortly before the federal election when she criticised Arafura MP Marion Scrymgour over her scathing criticism of the federal government's intervention into Aboriginal communities, complaining of “motherhood statements from urbanised saviours”. The reshuffle that followed Clare Martin's departure a few weeks later made her parliamentary secretary to Scrymgour in the indigenous affairs portfolio.



NELSON
Independent 16.2% vs CLP


RegionOuter Darwin
CandidatesGerry Wood (Independent)
Maureen Kohlman (CLP)
Justine Luders-Searle (Labor)
Replacing abolished Koolpinyah in 1990, Nelson covers semi-rural areas from the eastern edge of Darwin to the Adelaide River. The inaugural member was Noel Padgham-Purich (a woman), who had held other seats as a CLP member from 1977 and as an independent after losing preselection in 1987. Nelson was recovered for the CLP when Padgham-Purich retired in 1997 by Chris Lugg, who narrowly defeated a Padgham-Purich endorsed independent, David Toller – later to emerge as federal CLP member for Solomon and now candidate for Fong Lim. Lugg served as Education Minister in the final term of the Burke government before his defeat in 2001 by the present independent member, former Litchfield shire president Gerry Wood. The 2005 election again saw Wood face off against Lugg, but the result proved consistent with the overall CLP disaster by giving Wood a 15.9 per cent two-candidate swing, with the CLP down 17.3 per cent on the primary vote. Wood's opponents this time are the CLP's Maureen Kohlman, a training consultant, and Labor's Justine Luders-Searle, an organiser with the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association.



NHULUNBUY
Labor 25.5%


RegionTop End
Outgoing MemberSyd Stirling (Labor)
CandidatesLynne Walker (Labor)
Djuwalpi Marika (CLP)
One of the original seats from 1974, Labor's win in this Gove Peninsula electorate in 1980 was their last at the expense of a CLP incumbent until 2001. It became extremely safe for Labor over the years, especially on the watch of Syd Stirling who became member in 1990. Stirling quit as deputy leader and Treasurer concurrently with Clare Martin's departure in November 2007, and will not contest the coming election. The new Labor candidate is Lynne Walker, said by the Sunday Territorian to have been an “English teacher in Driver, Katherine and Nhulunbuy before joining Rio Tinto Alcan's Gove operation”. The paper earlier reported that Walker had been “chosen by Mr Stirling and is being groomed for the position”. Antony Green notes that Nhulunbuy is one of the few remote electorates with a substantial European population, centred on the mining town of Gove.



NIGHTCLIFF
Labor 15.7%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesEmma Young (Greens)
Jane Aagaard (Labor)
Peter Manning (CLP)
The past members of this northern suburbs seat are Dawn Lawrie (mother of current Treasurer and Karama MP Delia Lawrie), who served as an independent from 1974 to 1983, and Steve Hatton, CLP member from 1983 to 2001 and Chief Minister from 1986 to 1988. Hatton's son Jason attempted to hold the seat for the CLP when his father retired, but an 11.7 per cent swing delivered it to Labor's Jane Aagaard. Aagaard was immediately elevated to Health Minister and quickly developed a reputation as a liability for the government, eventually being dropped to the back-bench in December 2003. A Northern Territory News editorial on 10 January 2004 reported that "everybody from the Chief Minister to the bloke who runs the corner shop wants her to bow out graciously", but she nonetheless picked up an 8.5 per cent swing when she stood again in 2005. Aagaard seems to have had more luck in her new role as Speaker, which she assumed after the 2005 election. Her opponent at the coming election is Peter Manning, vice-chairman of the Northern Territory Seafood Council and candidate for Nhulunbuy in 2005.



PORT DARWIN
Labor 1.9%


RegionInner Darwin
CandidatesJohn Elferink (CLP)
Gary Abbott (Greens)
Kerry Sacilotto (Labor)
Port Darwin covers the Darwin CBD along with the inner suburbs of Larrakeyah and Stuart Park, though part of the latter has been transferred to Fannie Bay due to what Antony Green describes as “soaring” enrolment on the back of the inner-city apartment boom. It provided the CLP with its safest Darwin seat before the 2005 election, but an 8.8 per cent Labor swing ensured it contributed to Labor's clean sweep of the city. The previous members were Shane Stone, who held the seat from 1990 and served as Chief Minister from 1995 until he was dumped in favour of Denis Burke in 1999, and Sue Carter, who succeeded Stone at a by-election in March 2000. Carter survived an independent challenge in 2001 from former Casuarina MP and one-term federal member Nick Dondas before her defeat in 2005 by Labor's Kerry Sacilotto, a former vice-president of the Northern Territory Real Estate Institute of the Northern Territory. The new CLP candidate is party director John Elferink, who was defeated in the remote electorate of Macdonnell in 2005 after two terms as member. Elferink claimed in the lead-up to the election that Labor was conducting a “smear campaign” to suggest he was a homosexual, playing on an account he gave in parliament of a sexual assault he suffered at the hands of an adult predator during his adolescence. This followed an incident where Elferink was suspended from parliament for 24 hours for threatening to “f...ing smack” Johnston MP Chris Burns after he repeatedly mouthed the word “poofter” at him.



SANDERSON
Labor 10.0%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesPeter Styles (CLP)
Len Kiely (Labor)
Sanderson covers the northern Darwin suburbs of Anula, Wulagi, Marrara and part of Malak, expanding with the redistribution to take part of Wagaman from Johnston to the west. It joined its northern suburbs neighbours in swinging decisively to Labor when Clare Martin came to power in 2001, public servant Len Kiely defeating CLP member Daryl Manzie with a 12.3 per cent swing to record Labor's first win since 1977. Kiely was re-elected in 2005 with a 7.0 per cent swing that was fairly mild by Darwin standards. He has had a somewhat erratic parliamentary career, making the news in April 2002 after using an obscenity in parliament to describe CLP member Steve Dunham (the Northern Territory News delicately reported that the word was “w.....”), and again in July 2006 when he informed a female parliamentary security guard of the things he could do with his tongue. On the latter occasion he was forced to stand down as Deputy Speaker, but he did not have to wait long for rehabilitation, winning the cabinet post of Environment Minister when Paul Henderson became Chief Minister the following November. The CLP has again nominated its candidate from 2005, policeman Peter Styles, who earlier ran for Wanguri in 1997. Styles' preselection win had supporters of rival Jo Sangster (who will instead contest Johnston) complaining of branch stacking and dominance of the party by a “boys' club”.



STUART
Labor 18.9%


RegionCentral Australia
CandidatesKarl Hampton (Labor)
Rex Granites Japanangka (CLP)
Overwhelmingly dominated by Aboriginal voters, Stuart covers about half the length of the Western Australian border to the north of Alice Springs, extending northwards to surround but not include Katherine. The latter area has been added with the redistribution, with the countervailing loss of its Alice Springs outskirts. An electorate bearing the name has existed since self-government began in 1974, but its character was altered in 1983 when a redistribution moved it out of Alice Springs. It then fell to Labor for the first time and has been safe for them ever since. Peter Toyne was member from a 1996 by-election, held after the retirement of former party leader Brian Ede, until his own mid-term retirement in September 2006. He was then succeeded at a by-election by one of his ministerial advisers, Karl Hampton, who was also coach of the Central Australian Football League club the Pioneers. The CLP has again nominated one of its two candidates at the by-election, Rex Granites Japanangka.



WANGURI
Labor 20.8%


RegionNorthern Suburbs
CandidatesPaul Henderson (Labor)
Duncan Dean (Independent)
Kerrie Kyriacou (CLP)
Paul Henderson's seat of Wanguri covers the northern Darwin suburbs of Wanguri and Leanyer, and has been little affected by the redistribution. It was held by the CLP's Don Dale from its creation in 1983 until his retirement in 1989, subsequently falling to Labor's John Bailey at a by-election. Bailey nearly lost the seat against the trend of a general pro-Labor swing at the 1994 election, which many blamed on CLP push-polling that also targeted Ken Parish in Millner. Bailey's retirement in 1999 precipitated a by-election at which Paul Henderson picked up an 11.5 per cent two-party swing. Antony Green estimated that the redistribution before the 2001 election had turned it into a notional CLP seat, but Henderson was comfortably returned with 55.3 per cent of the primary vote, to which he added a further 15.5 per cent in 2005. The CLP has again nominated Kerrie Kyriacou, whose endorsement in 2004 raised eyebrows as she was still a paid-up member of the ALP.