THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

WILLOUGHBY
Liberal 7.0%*

Willoughby covers the western bank of Middle Harbour from Cremorne north to Castle Cove, extending west through Willoughby to Chatswood West. The redistribution has removed 1400 voters in Falcon to North Shore in the south and effected a territory swap with Lane Cove in the west, adding 3000 voters around Chatswood and removing 2500 around Mowbray. These changes have cut 0.4 per cent from the Liberal margin. The seat has existed since 1884 with two interruptions: during the proportional representation era from 1920 to 1927, and in the brief period when parliamentary numbers expanded from 1988 to 1991.

Labor's only wins were in 1894, 1913 and 1978, the last of which was assisted by sitting member Larry McGinty's preselection defeat at the hands of future Premier Nick Greiner. McGinty ran as an independent, and his preferences helped deliver a 424-vote victory to Labor's Eddie Britt. The seat was recovered in 1981 by future Opposition Leader Peter Collins, who was accommodated in the short-lived seat of Middle Harbour at the 1988 election. Collins did not contest the 2003 election and was succeeded by Gladys Berejiklian (right), a former Young Liberals president and Commonwealth Bank executive who won preselection over barrister Gary O'Gorman by 69 votes to 37. Also in the field was former North Sydney Council alderman Jonathan O'Dea, the current Liberal candidate for Davidson. Berejiklian then had to survive a determined independent challenge from Willoughby mayor Pat Reilly (below left), who reportedly spent $166,896 on his campaign. Reilly polled 24.9 per cent to Labor's 21.1 per cent and fell 144 votes short of overtaking Berejiklian on preferences, after leading at the close of count on election night.

Berejiklian has since enjoyed a rapid rise: in February 2005 she was given the mental health portfolio, to which cancer and medical research were added two months later, along with the role of "Shadow Minister Assisting the Leader on Ethnic Affairs". A further portfolio, youth affairs, was acquired in September 2005. Cancer and medical research were exchanged for the more senior community services in March 2006, and she emerged the big winner of the most recent reshuffle in November with her move from community services to transport and waterways. Her successes have come despite her opposition to the conservative Christian Right faction, widely perceived to have been in the ascendant in recent years. Labor's candidate is speech and drama teacher Linda Beattie (right), who stood against federal Health Minister Tony Abbott in Warringah at the 2004 election. Pat Reilly has also indicated that he might run again.

Pat Reilly announced in the second week of the campaign that he would again contest the seat as an independent. Pseudonymous Poll Bludger commenter Edward St John reported that Liberal headquarters was "freaking out over Pat Reilly running again", and had accordingly included Willoughby on its uncomfortably short list of 15 seats to be targeted with extra resources.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain