THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

TAMWORTH
Independent 1.9% versus Nationals

The electorate of Tamworth covers 16,416 square kilometres and extends from the town itself, located 420 kilometres north of Sydney, westwards to Gunnedah and north to Barraba. The redistribution has significantly reoriented the electorate to the west and north, but only a small number of voters are affected: 4500 around Manilla, Barraba and Boggabri have been added from Barwon in the north, while 2300 voters in the Shire of Walch have been lost to Northern Tablelands in the east. Tamworth has never been held by Labor, but has been dominated in recent years by independents. Local farmer Tony Windsor won the seat in 1991 after failing to win endorsement to succeed long-standing member Noel Park as the National Party candidate; he polled 36.2 per cent of the primary vote and had an easy 9.8 per cent win after preferences. Windsor was henceforth unassailable, to the extent that the Nationals did not field a candidate in 1995 and managed only 11.6 per cent in 1999. He quit parliament in 2001 to successfully stand for the seat of New England at that year's election, defeating Nationals incumbent Stuart St Clair.

The seat was recovered for the Nationals at the ensuing by-election by farmer and small businessman John Cull, who benefited from a split in the independent vote between James Treloar and Warren Woodley, respectively the mayor and former mayor. Cull's parliamentary career proved to be short-lived, as he was successfully challenged at the 2003 election by independent candidate Peter Draper (right), previously the regional manager of Hazelton Airlines. Draper's win came after what Philippa Murray of the Newcastle Herald described as "a well-planned campaign that attracted considerable support from business benefactors". The booth results show particularly strong support for Draper in and around Tamworth, whereas the Nationals comfortably won the booths in Gunnedah. When the Daily Telegraph recently assessed independents' likely loyalties in the event that they held the balance of power, it said Draper was "undecided, but swings towards Opposition".

The Nationals candidate is Kevin Anderson (left), who enjoys an extremely high local profile after 11 years as presenter of Tamworth's Prime Local News.

The Nationals chose Tamworth racecourse as the venue for their campaign launch on February 18. Peter Draper received short shrift for his complaint to the Electoral Commission that an accompanying "family fun day" was contrived to "get as many people as possible out to the National party's campaign launch so that when the Sydney media turns up, it looks like they've got support".

ASSESSMENT: Independent retain