THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

SOUTH COAST
Liberal 1.6%

The 3956 square kilometres covered by the electorate of South Coast includes a heavily populated area around Nowra in the north-east, along with rural areas to the west and coastline as far south as Kioloa. The redistribution has shifted the electorate southwards, with nearly 11,000 voters around Bomaderry north of the Shoalhaven River going to Kiama and 7000 voters around Bawley Point added from Bega. The loss of the strong Liberal vote in the Bomaderry area has cut the slender existing margin a further 1.2 per cent. The seat has existed since 1930, and has spent much of that time in independent hands. It was won in 1941 by Rupert Beale, who died the following year and was succeeded by his son Jack Beale, also an independent. Beale junior joined the Liberal Party in 1947 and served as a minister in the Askin government, remaining as member until 1973. He was succeeded upon his retirement by another independent, John Hatton, who had come within 340 votes of defeating Beale in 1971. Hatton held the seat until 1995, often without opposition from Labor candidates; in 1981 he was re-elected unopposed. Hatton was succeeded upon his retirement by Liberal candidate Eric Ellis, despite the candidacy of his son, also called John Hatton.

Ellis went on to lose to Labor's Wayne Smith in 1999 by 118 votes, but the seat returned to the Liberal fold with the election of Shoalhaven councillor Shelley Hancock (left) in 2003. This was despite opposition from Shoalhaven mayor Greg Watson, who ran as an independent after failing to win Liberal preselection. Watson claimed his preselection bid initially had the support of federal Gilmore MP Joanna Gash, party state director Scott Morrison and former Premier John Fahey, but he had fallen out of favour when John Brogden replaced Kerry Chikarovski as leader. Watson only managed 6.8 per cent of the primary vote, and Hancock won the seat from Labor with a 3.3 per cent two-party swing. Hancock emerged as a staunch backer of Brogden's leadership, but nonetheless won promotion to parliamentary secretary to the Transport Minister in November 2006. It was reported in September 2006 that Watson was considering another run as an independent. Labor candidate Michelle Miran (right) is business manager with the NSW Department of State and Regional Development at Nowra.

There has been talk from the Labor camp that the Liberals might not be safe in South Coast, one of their few gains from 2003, although the Liberals at first disputed this. Campaign director Graham Jaeschke told the Financial Review he had not seen any Labor activity in South Coast or any other Liberal marginal. The Coalition nonetheless targeted the seat with a promise to spend $200 million over four years improving safety on the notorious Princes Highway south of Kiama. Three days out from the election Anne Davies and Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald reported that the Liberals were now openly concerned about the seat. They may have benefited from some unduly rough play two days out from the election, with the re-heating of allegations that Shelley Hancock and her husband Oswald had been involved in the production of pornographic films. This was reportedly the work of "Labor sources", although Morris Iemma denied all knowledge of the allegation. It should be stressed that the Hancocks said the scenes were "spliced into the movies without Mr Hancock's knowledge or permission", and that he was "fully clothed in all the scenes from the movies, as were the (other) actors". The matter first emerged during the 2003 campaign, when the Daily Telegraph reported that two 1990 newspaper clippings were anonymously sent to the media calling attention to "the production of pornographic films on the south coast, including the holiday resort once owned by Mrs Hancock and her husband Oswald. The Hancocks' H-Ranch Motel, near Milton, featured in movies including Aussie Vice, Bushwhacker, Dick Tracer and True Blue". Shelley Hancock said at the time that she and her husband "vigorously denied any knowledge of the pornos and said the producer had said he was making a documentary". Nothing was said at the time of her husband's appearance in the films.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain