THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

SHELLHARBOUR
Labor 26.8%

Shellharbour replaces the abolished seat of Illawarra, maintaining 26,500 of its voters around Lake Illawarra at Mount Warrigal in the south and Dapto in the west. To the south, it assumes Shellharbour itself from Kiama, accounting for 14,500 voters; a further 3600 voters on the western shore of Lake Illawarra have been gained from Wollongong. Illawarra had existed without interruption since 1927 (barring one term from 1968 when it was renamed Corrimal), and was held throughout by Labor except from 1987 to 1988, when sitting member George Petersen quit to form the "Illawarra Workers Party". Marianne Saliba has held the seat since 1999, and is now retiring. She has been succeeded as Labor candidate by Lylea McMahon (right), senior industrial relations officer for BlueScope Steel. The imposition of such a candidate by the party's national executive went down predictably poorly with blue-collar unions such as the Australian Workers Union, which accused her of carrying out "acts of industrial bastardry" against steelworkers, and threatened to campaign for an independent or Greens candidate. Paul McInerny of the Illawarra Mercury reported that the latter threat was averted by a deal understood to involve an undertaking that no more preselection interventions would occur in the Illawarra in future.

There was a similar outbreak of discontent among local unions ahead of the 2003 election, when the AWU, the building division of the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union and the Fire Brigade Employees' Union considered endorsing AWU branch secretary Andy Gillespie as an independent. This followed their show of strength in backing successful Greens candidate Michael Organ at the federal Cunningham by-election in 2002, along with Gillespie's unsuccessful bid for Labor preselection. Saliba relied for both her 1999 and 2003 preselection victories on "N40" ballots which allowed the party's administration to secure its preferred outcome, to the chagrin of Left-dominated local branches. In October, Wollongong's 72-year-old lord mayor Alex Darling (left) announced he would run as an independent, complaining that "the selection of Lylea McMahon as a government-selected candidate was undemocratic".

Planning Minister Frank Sartor announced in the second week of the campaign that tenders would be called for a long-delayed road link establishing flood-free access between Dapto and Horsley. Mario Christodoulou of the Illawarra Mercury reported that the road would cater both for existing residents and "more than 19,000 new residents expected to move into West Dapto". Alex Darling told the Mercury he expected the project to "just disappear after the election, and they will not put any money in it".

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain