THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

RYDE
Labor 14.8%

Ryde covers a short stretch of Sydney Harbour's north shore at Meadowbank to the west of the city, extending north through Denistone to Marsfield and Macquarie Park. The redistribution has amended the seat only slightly, adding 2000 voters in Ryde East from Lane Cove, cutting 0.7 per cent from the Labor margin. Having earlier existed as a seat as far back as 1894, Ryde was recreated in 1999 with the abolition of Gladesville and Ermington. Labor's John Watkins (right), a teacher and former Hunters Hill deputy mayor, had won Gladesville from Liberal incumbent Ivan Petch in 1995; Michael Photios had held Ermington for the Liberals since it replaced Ryde in 1991, having won Ryde from Labor in 1988. The new seat of Ryde had a notional Liberal margin of 4.1 per cent, and there were suggestions Watkins might seek a safe haven in Wentworthville (now Toongabbie). This did not occur, and Watkins and Photios went head-to-head at the 1999 election. Watkins easily prevailed, picking up a 10.7 per cent swing.

A major player in the Left, Watkins made the front bench after the 1999 election with the fair trading and sport and recreation portfolios. He further took on corrective services in January 2001, before replacing the struggling John Aquilina in education and training in November 2003. In the current term he has been assigned to two of the most politically sensitive portfolios for the government: police, which he handled until January 2005, and transport. He resumed police when Carl Scully quit in November 2006 while continuing to serve as Transport Minister. When Bob Carr and his deputy Andrew Refshauge stepped aside in August 2005, Watkins demonstrated his seniority in the Left by securing the faction's main prize, the deputy leadership. This was despite Morris Iemma's wish that the position go to Carmel Tebbutt, then in the process of moving from the upper house to the lower at the Marrickville by-election. It was expected that Tebbutt would defeat Watkins in a caucus ballot, but she agreed not to contest after Watkins reportedly threatened Morris Iemma with "serious consequences" if he was not given a clean run.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain