THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

PITTWATER
Liberal 20.1%*

Pittwater covers Sydney's northern beaches from Narrabeen north to the Pittwater peninsula, and inland to Duffs Forest and part of the Ku-ring-gai National Park. It was created in 1973 in place of abolished Collaroy, which Liberal Premier Bob Askin had held since its creation in 1950. Askin retired as Premier and local member in 1975, initiating the first of four by-elections to be held during its history. This was won for the Liberals by television newsreader Bruce Webster, who in turn resigned in 1978. The scheduled by-election became unnecessary when Neville Wran called the early election that reduced the Liberals to 18 seats, one being Pittwater which was won by Max Smith. Smith's resignation in 1986 prompted a by-election at which surfing champion Nat Young polled 24.2 per cent as an independent amid outrage over sewage pollution at local beaches, coming within 3.1 per cent of victory after preferences. His successor Jim Longley quit parliament after the Fahey's government's 1995 election defeat and was succeeded at a by-election by John Brogden, who went on to lead the party from May 2002 until his resignation in May 2005. Despite an apparent suicide attempt at this time, Brogden remained as member for three months before resigning in August 2005.

There followed yet another by-election, this one producing a disastrous result for the Liberals as locals reacted against Brogden's perceived rough treatment by his rivals in the party's Right faction. The Liberals candidate was Paul Nicolaou, the chief executive of the state party's fundraising arm, former chairman of the Ethnic Communities Council, and unsuccessful candidate for Ryde at the 2003 election. Nicolaou won a preselection vote over former John Brogden staffer Rob Stokes (left), his employer's preferred choice, by 49 votes to 28. Although a colleague of Brogden in the party's moderate faction, Lane Cove resident Nicolaou was viewed as an outsider by voters in an area sometimes known as the "insular peninsula". This found expression with his defeat at the hands of Pittwater mayor and independent candidate Alex McTaggart (right), who polled 39.2 per cent to Nicolaou's 38.1 per cent in the absence of a Labor candidate. This translated into a 5.4 per cent win for McTaggart after preferences.

Alex McTaggart has obviously not been studying his election campaigning textbook. In the second last week of the campaign, he modestly informed the Sydney Morning Herald’s Andrew Clennell that he need not bother coming to see him, as he was "going to win anyway". Clennell made the trip regardless and was told by McTaggart that he did not believe in doorknocking, which he considered "in your face" and unpopular with voters. McTaggart also said his own polling showed "a 2 per cent swing from him to the Liberals on primary votes", a hard statement to read given there was no Labor candidate at the by-election. A week previously, the Financial Review reported that Liberal polling had them trailing 57-43 on two-candidate preferred.

ASSESSMENT: Independent retain