THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

NORTH SHORE
Liberal 12.1%

The electorate of North Shore extends from Manns Point east to Middle Harbour, taking in North Sydney, Kirribilli and Mosman on the harbour, along with St Leonards and Balmoral to the north. The redistribution has added 1400 new voters in Falcon to the north from Willoughby. The seat was created in place of safe Liberal Kirribilli at the 1981 election, when it produced a shock result with the defeat of Liberal leader Bruce McDonald (the second successive election where this occurred, Peter Coleman having lost Ryde as leader in 1978). The victor on that occasion was independent candidate Ted Mack, the mayor of North Sydney. Mack held the seat until he quit in 1988; two years later he won the federal seat of North Sydney from Liberal incumbent John Spender, holding it until his retirement in 1996. North Shore remained in independent hands for one term after Mack's departure, being won at the 1988 election by North Sydney councillor Robyn Read. Read's position was weakened at the 1991 election when the redistribution moved the seat into territory vacated by the abolition of Mosman, whose sitting member Phillip Smiles recovered the seat for the Liberals. Smiles was compelled to resign in 1994 after he was convicted on tax charges; Read stood again at the ensuing by-election, but former journalist Jillian Skinner (right) had no difficulty retaining it for the Liberals with 54.7 per cent of the primary vote.

An influential member of the moderate party faction known as "the Group", Skinner was given the important health portfolio after the 1995 defeat of the Fahey government , but her position weakened under Kerry Chikarovski's leadership and she lost her other portfolio of youth affairs in 1999. She subsequently emerged as a backer of John Brogden's leadership ambitions, and recovered youth affairs when they were realised in 2002. After the 2003 election Skinner stood unsuccessfully for the deputy leadership, losing to Ku-ring-gai MP Barry O'Farrell. At this time she was reassigned to the education and arts portfolios, but the former role was downgraded in April 2005 when it was split into "school education" and "vocational education", the latter going to Ballina MP Don Page. She returned to health the following September while retaining arts.

ASSESSMENT: Liberal retain