THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

MURRAY-DARLING
Nationals 1.4%*

Murray-Darling covers the entire western part of New South Wales, including the length of the South Australian border, 300 kilometres of the Queensland border and 500 kilometres of the Victorian border. The outstanding population centre is Broken Hill; others include Deniliquin near the Victorian border, and Wentworth on the Murray. With the ongoing decline of remote areas, redistributions over time have diluted the influence of Labor-voting Broken Hill and increased that of its conservative surrounds. The current redistribution has been no different, adding the western part of Murrumbidgee, including Griffith, Deniliquin and Jerilderie, for the addition of nearly 15,000 voters, while transferring Bourke and Cobar shires to Barwon, accounting for 8000 voters. This has produced an 8.1 per cent shift in the Nationals' favour, giving them a 1.4 per cent notional margin in a Labor-held seat. The seat has existed in one form or another since 1864, but has only been held by Labor in modern times since it absorbed the abolished seat of Broken Hill in 1999. It was then won by Peter Black (right), mayor of Broken Hill for 18 years, who picked up a 7.7 per cent swing to defeat Nationals incumbent Mark Kersten by 4.2 per cent.

Black has since established himself as one of the parliament's most colourful figures, accumulating a list of indiscretions of a type that only a regional MP can get away with. In March 2004, a tired and emotional Black noisily interrupted proceedings in parliament and "lunged" at Labor colleague Victoria Judge, the member for Strathfield. Liberal member Barry O'Farrell then accused Black of being "pissed", and was thrown out of parliament for two days for offensive language. In 2000, then-Nationals leader George Souris said under parliamentary privilege that Black was prone to "rolling about the countryside resting his head on every bar in every pub in NSW, passing out at several of them". One incident that was never fully explained involved Black's admittance to hospital in September 1999 with a broken arm, wrist and ribs, ruptured kidneys and head injuries, said to have resulted either from a fight or a fall down a staircase. Black is also renowned for a combative political style that has been evident since his maiden speech, in which he characterised Liberals as "cocaine-sniffing North Shore yuppies", and Nationals members as having "six fingers and only one set of grandparents between the lot of them". Having apparently neglected to outrage the Greens, he later circulated a recipe for poached koala. In November 2000, he helpfully suggested that then-Liberal leader Kerry Chikarovski should "get a facelift".

Black's various controversies did him no harm at all at the 2003 election, when he picked up 6.2 per cent on the primary vote and 2.5 per cent on two-party preferred. However, the latest unfavourable redistribution might prove a bridge too far. There was speculation that former Nationals leader Ian Armstrong would contest the seat following the abolition of his own seat of Lachlan, but he has instead chosen to retire. The party has instead nominated John Williams (left), described by its website as having "more than 20 years experience as a small business operator in the Murray-Darling region". Also in the field is Ron Page, former mayor of the recently dismissed Broken Hill City Council, who is running as an independent.

ASSESSMENT: LABOR NOTIONAL GAIN