THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

MONARO
Labor 4.4%

Monaro covers an area to the east and south of the Australian Capital Territory, extending south to the Victorian border. The eastern area includes Queanbeyan, Bungendore and Braidwood; the south includes Thredbo, Jindabyne and Cooma. The strongest area for Labor is Queanbeyan, home to about 45 per cent of the electorate's voters, where they polled more than 50 per cent of the primary vote in all but one of the 10 booths in 2003. The smaller booths elsewhere feature both a traditional conservative rural base and a Greens-voting tree-changer element. The redistribution has detached the electorate's coastal territory immediately north of the Victorian border, sending nearly 4000 voters around Eden, Towamba and Wyndham to Bega.

Like the corresponding federal seat of Eden-Monaro, Monaro has a good record as a bellwether: it was won by Labor from the Country Party when the McKell government came to power in 1941; by the Liberals when Labor finally lost office in 1965; by Labor when Neville Wran came to power in 1976; and by the Nationals when the Greiner government was elected in 1988. The spell was broken when it stayed with the Nationals in 1995 and 1999. Monaro was finally won for Labor in 2003 by Steve Whan (right), whose father Bob was the member for Eden-Monaro during the Whitlam government. Whan had earlier made himself familiar to locals through his unsuccessful attempts to win his father's old seat in 1998 and 2001. His win came at the expense of Nationals member Peter Webb, who had succeeded Peter Cochran at the 1999 election. Cochran quit the Nationals in 1996 and ran unsuccessfully as an independent in Eden-Monaro in 1998.

Webb only managed to hold the seat in 1999 by 128 votes, having been damaged by the entry of a Liberal candidate who polled 19.7 per cent to Webb's 22.2 per cent. The mistake was not repeated in 2003, but Whan was nonetheless able to pick up a decisive 3.5 per cent swing. This time the Nationals have nominated David Madew (left), winery owner and son of former independent Queanbeyan mayor Dr David Madew, who was recruited from outside the party in December.

In the first week of the campaign, Steven Scott of the Australian Financial Review reported that Labor strategists were "confident of retaining Monaro, particularly after the scuttling of the planned Snowy Hydro sale, which was unpopular with local communities" – and also with Steve Whan, who had been a vociferous critic. Iemma had visited Queanbeyan the day before for the so-called "Country Labor election campaign launch".

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain