THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

MARRICKVILLE
Labor 10.0% versus Greens*

Marrickville covers the south-western inner city from Darlington through Newtown and Dulwich Hill to Marrickville and Cooks River. Minor adjustments from the redistribution have added 1700 voters at Darlington from Bligh (now Sydney) to the north-east, and 600 from Canterbury to the west. The seat has existed since 1894, barring the interruption of proportional representation between 1920 and 1927, and has been in Labor hands since 1910. The member from 1983 to 2005 was Left faction heavyweight Andrew Refshauge, who was Deputy Premier throughout the life of the Carr government and Treasurer in his last eight months in office. Along with Planning Minister Craig Knowles, Refshauge resigned shortly after Bob Carr in August 2005, prompting simultaneous by-elections in their seats of Macquarie Fields, Marrickville and Maroubra. Marrickville was the only one of the three where the result appeared in doubt, due to the Greens' success in finishing second in 2003 with 39.3 per cent of the two-party vote.

Labor's candidate for the by-election was Education Minister Carmel Tebbutt (right), who had been an upper house member since 1998. Tebbutt's smooth path to preselection was assisted in no small part by the fact that Marrickville corresponds with her husband Anthony Albanese's federal seat of Grayndler and his accompanying power base. The move was initially made with a view to assuming the deputy leadership, which by long-standing agreement has been the preserve of Tebbutt's Left faction. However, the Left failed to reciprocate Morris Iemma's backing for her, and insisted that the position instead go to Ryde MP John Watkins. Tebbutt was nonetheless prevailed upon to make the switch to the lower house, as it was believed her Left credentials would secure the seat against the threat of the Greens. David Fisher of the Daily Telegraph suggested two factors influenced Tebbutt to take the bait: an ongoing ambition to eventually assume the deputy’s position, and a desire to "bank favours" for after the coming election. The swing to the Greens at the by-election was limited to 5.6 per cent on two-party preferred, with the Labor primary vote holding steady on 48.4 per cent in the absence of a Liberal candidate. The Greens candidate for the coming election is Fiona Byrne (left), a Marrickville councillor.

As usual, the Greens’ preference deliberations have eaten up a lot of column inches, despite the notorious indirectability of the party's supporters. Of greater interest was the free kick the Liberals gave Labor in the second last week of the campaign when they announced they would recommend an exhausted vote in Marrickville and Balmain – the two seats the Greens could potentially win. Since major party voters really do follow the how-to-vote card, this will surely end the Greens' hopes for a lower house seat, giving Labor two less things to worry about. This step was presumably taken to give the Coalition ammunition in a late-campaign offensive over supposed deals between Labor and the Greens, perhaps involving secret protocols on crime and drugs policy.

ASSESSMENT: Labor retain