THE POLL BLUDGER
New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007

MANLY
Independent 0.6% versus Liberal

The electorate of Manly extends from Middle Harbour to the coast, taking in Seaforth, Balgowlah and Clontarf at the former end and Manly and Curl Curl at the latter. The redistribution has extended the northern coastal boundary to bring in 2000 voters from neighbouring Wakehurst. Antony Green estimates that this has cut the independent-versus-Liberal margin from 1.2 per cent to 0.6 per cent, although this is inevitably somewhat arbitrary as the new area's support for the independent member has never been tested. The Liberal primary vote in 2003 ranged from over 50 per cent in harbourside booths at Seaforth and Balgowlah Heights to the high thirties in the suburbs along the coast; these variations were shadowed by patterns in the Labor vote, with little regional variation in support for David Barr.

The electorate was created with the abolition of proportional representation in 1927 and held from then until 1945 by Major Alfred Reid, who represented the seat both as an independent and under various conservative banners (including the Country Party) in the pre-Liberal Party era. His successor Douglas Darby held the seat for the Liberals from 1945 to 1978, barring a period from 1962 to 1965 when he sat as an independent. Darby retired in 1978 and the seat became one of Labor's more remarkable victories at the 1978 and 1981 "Wranslides", when it was won by Alan Stewart. David Hay recovered the seat for the Liberals in 1984, but its penchant for quirky behaviour returned in 1991 when independent Manly councillor Peter MacDonald overcame a 45.7 per cent to 34.9 per cent deficit on the primary vote to defeat Hay by 0.7 per cent after preferences. In 1995 the Liberals nominated David Oldfield, who would soon emerge as a key adviser to Pauline Hanson (after a stint working in federal Warringah MP Tony Abbott's electorate office) and ultimately win a One Nation seat in the upper house. Oldfield came within 0.4 per cent of defeating MacDonald after preferences, having led 44.5 per cent to 38.0 per cent on the primary vote.

MacDonald retired at the 1999 election and ran unsuccessfully against Abbott in Warringah in 2001, polling 27.8 per cent. The Liberals were naturally hopeful that the seat would return to the fold, but they were thwarted when MacDonald threw his weight behind a new independent candidate, deputy mayor David Barr (right). Liberal candidate and Warringah councillor Darren Jones outpolled Barr on the primary vote 38.7 per cent to 30.2 per cent, but lost by 1.3 per cent after preferences. In 2003 the Liberals nominated Jean Hay, popularly elected Manly mayor and wife of the member MacDonald defeated in 1991. Hay became the fourth successive Liberal candidate to lose by less than 2 per cent, scoring 41.0 per cent to Barr's 33.4 per cent on the primary vote but falling 1.3 per cent short after preferences.

This time the Liberals have nominated Michael Baird (left), head of corporate banking with HSBC and the son of Bruce Baird, former Greiner/Fahey government minister and current federal member for Cook. Baird was favoured by the Left faction ahead of arch right-winger and former army officer Michael Darby, who was reportedly set to benefit from the stacking of more than 100 members into the seat in 2005. Anne Davies of the Sydney Morning Herald reported at the time that the Right-dominated state executive had rebuffed the key seats committee's recommendation that nominations be closed to give the Right time to recruit more "quality candidates", specifically Darren Jones or Manly councillor Pat Daley. No such candidate was forthcoming and Baird defeated Darby in the preselection vote by 75 votes to 63, after lobbying on Baird's behalf by Peter Debnam, Alan Jones and the Prime Minister. Alex Mitchell of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Baird, who will suffer a pay cut from $500,000 to $111,000 if elected, is "widely tipped as a future Liberal leader". It has been reported that David Barr is "likely to support Labor" if the independents hold the balance of power.

Manly's "goat lady", Penelope Wynne, has entered the field as an independent. Damien Murphy of the Sydney Morning Herald informs us she is so called because "two goats starred in a stunt she used to draw attention to a development fight with Manly Council last year". Wynne's disputes with council have been the subject of considerable coverage in the Manly Daily; the Herald's Anne Davies tells us this is "often the only newspaper people read" in an area "sometimes disparaged as the insular peninsula" (a distinction it shares with Pittwater, and probably every other outcrop of land in the English-speaking world). On the second last Saturday of the campaign, Steven Scott of the Financial Review reported that while the Liberal Party's polling showed it was unlikely to recover Pittwater, it had a "better chance" in Manly.

ASSESSMENT: LIBERAL GAIN